OCBC revises target
OCBC has increased its gold price target to $5,600 per ounce for the end of 2026, up from its prior projection of $4,800 per ounce, the bank said on Tuesday.
Drivers cited
The bank said the upward revision follows recent sharp increases in the metal's price and a sustained, structural demand pattern. OCBC emphasized that this revision does not represent a fundamental reworking of its underlying market narrative.
Gold has risen 17% so far in 2026, the bank noted, and prices have stayed elevated even as the market has experienced intermittent pullbacks.
Nature of support for gold
According to OCBC, gold's current bid is less about isolated event-driven risk and more about a persistent environment of uncertainty that encourages portfolio diversification into non-sovereign assets. The bank's analysis identified a consistent pricing premium that cannot be entirely explained by conventional macro and financial variables - including yields, the U.S. dollar, ETF flows, volatility measures, and policy uncertainty.
OCBC interprets that unexplained premium as evidence of a material geopolitical or broader uncertainty component now priced into gold. That component is, in the bank's view, driven more by ongoing uncertainty surrounding geopolitics, unpredictable policy moves, and confidence in the U.S. dollar, rather than by cyclical factors.
Additional market anchors
OCBC said the core upward drivers of gold remain largely unchanged. Geopolitical uncertainty now functions as a structural source of support for the market, while monetary conditions remain an important pillar. The bank also pointed to demand from official sector buyers and ETF holders as continuing to provide a notable anchor for prices.
Implications
The bank's outlook signals that gold's price dynamics are being shaped by longer-lasting uncertainty factors and steady institutional demand, leading OCBC to raise its price endpoint for 2026 without signaling a departure from its prior market framework.