Mexican authorities are currently evaluating the continuation of oil exports to Cuba, a reassessment driven by intensifying worries within President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration over possible U.S. backlash. This internal discussion involves top government officials who are aware of the delicate position Mexico holds as the Caribbean island’s primary oil supporter after Venezuela’s shipments ceased.
In December, the United States imposed a blockade on Venezuelan oil tankers, coupled with the recent detainment of President Nicolas Maduro, which effectively halted Venezuela’s ability to supply Cuba. Consequently, Mexico has risen as Cuba’s chief oil provider amid severe energy scarcities and widespread power outages that the island nation is enduring.
Mexico’s growing prominence as Cuba’s oil supplier has attracted significant scrutiny from Washington. Former U.S. President Donald Trump has vocally stated his intention to cut all oil and financial resources flowing into Cuba, reinforcing this stance in a January 11 post on Truth Social declaring: "THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA - ZERO!"
Despite these pressures, President Sheinbaum has publicly affirmed Mexico’s commitment to maintaining oil shipments to Cuba, emphasizing that they are founded on existing long-term contracts and construed as forms of international humanitarian aid rather than political gestures.
However, confidential sources within the Mexican government reveal that this policy is under rigorous internal scrutiny due to escalating fears of provoking the Trump administration. This internal review is considered highly sensitive, and diverse outcomes remain viable, ranging from completely suspending shipments to merely reducing volumes or continuing as is.
Mexico is presently engaged in delicate negotiations concerning a revision of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and is simultaneously striving to convince Washington of its active efforts against drug cartels. Mexican officials have clearly articulated opposition to any unilateral U.S. military incursions on Mexican soil, warning such actions would severely violate national sovereignty.
Recent communications between Trump and Sheinbaum reportedly involved discussions about crude and fuel deliveries to Cuba and Cuban doctors working in Mexico, with Sheinbaum emphasizing the humanitarian classification of the oil shipments and the legality under Mexican statutes of employing Cuban medical personnel. The U.S. president did not explicitly demand a halt to the oil shipments during these talks.
Adding to the atmosphere of tension, Mexican officials have become increasingly anxious about intensified U.S. Navy drone surveillance activities over the Gulf of Mexico since December. Flight-tracking data indicate regular patrols by Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton unmanned aerial vehicles along the route frequented by Mexican fuel tankers en route to Cuba. These surveillance patterns mirror previous U.S. reconnaissance near Venezuela prior to military operations.
On the domestic front, President Sheinbaum has launched a rigorous campaign against the powerful Sinaloa Cartel, including unprecedented extraditions of major drug lords to the United States, actions positively noted by U.S. officials yet coupled with continued resistance to foreign military presence on Mexican territory.
Sheinbaum acknowledged that while only a small volume of Mexico’s crude oil production is exported to Cuba, these shipments represent a critical gesture of solidarity amid dire hardships on the island. She expressed that such cooperation should persist despite ongoing challenges.
Trump’s intensified pressure on Cuba traces back to his first presidential term, reversing many prior diplomatic efforts aimed at normalization. This campaign has gained momentum during his recent term, influenced in part by prominent Cuban-American policymakers advocating for strict Venezuela sanctions intended to undermine Cuban alliances.
Cuba remains heavily dependent on imported refined petroleum products to satisfy demands for electricity generation, transportation fuels, and aviation needs. Lengthy U.S. sanctions combined with an ongoing economic crisis have hampered Cuba’s ability to independently secure sufficient fuel supplies, creating a reliance on a limited cadre of allied nations.
Within the Mexican government, there is growing concern that U.S. policies targeting Cuba’s oil supply could precipitate a humanitarian catastrophe, potentially inciting a mass migratory influx into Mexico. This scenario has contributed to internal advocacy for maintaining minimal fuel shipments to the island.
Given the stringent U.S. sanctions and substantial military vigilance in the region, it is improbable that oil producers aside from Mexico would emerge to compensate for Venezuela’s ceased shipments. U.S. enforcement actions recently captured vessels implicated in circumventing sanctions through oil transport from countries such as Iran and Russia.
Data from the Mexican state oil company Pemex, submitted to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, indicate that from January to September of the previous year, Mexico delivered approximately 17,200 barrels per day of crude oil and 2,000 barrels per day of refined products to Cuba, collectively valued around $400 million.