Overview
Calculations based on preliminary production data and market prices indicate that revenue from Russia’s principal oil tax jumped to roughly 700 billion roubles in April, about double the 327 billion roubles recorded in March. The surge reflects a sharp rise in benchmark prices for Russian crude amid a major disruption to global energy flows following airstrikes on Iran at the end of February.
The spike in receipts represents an increase of about 10% compared with the same month a year earlier. For the full year, Russia has budgeted 7.9 trillion roubles in revenue from the mineral extraction tax on oil for 2026.
What drove the revenue increase
The jump in tax income is tied to higher realizations for Urals crude, the grade used for taxation purposes. Economy ministry data show the average price of Urals rose to $77 per barrel in March, its highest level since October 2023. That figure was up 73% from February’s $44.59 per barrel and exceeded the $59 per barrel level assumed in this year’s state budget.
The immediate price shock followed U.S. and Israeli airstrikes on Iran at the end of February, after which Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz - a chokepoint that carries about a fifth of global oil and LNG flows. The market reaction pushed Brent futures well past $100 per barrel and prompted a wave of demand for available energy supplies.
Tax structure and changes
Russia’s main revenue from its oil and gas sector is tied to production. Export duty on crude oil was nullified from the start of 2024 as part of a broader tax manoeuvre, a multi-year reform of the industry’s tax framework. With export duties removed, the mineral extraction tax on oil output has become the primary channel for fiscal receipts from the sector.
Limits on the windfall and fiscal context
Despite the sharp April increase, constraints on sustained windfalls remain. Domestic economists have cautioned that 2026 could be a difficult year. The finance ministry reported a budget deficit of 4.58 trillion roubles, or 1.9% of gross domestic product, for January-March 2026.
Operational risks also weigh on revenues. Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, undertaken with the aim of undermining state finances, have contributed to reduced earnings and pose the risk of cuts in oil production.
Officials have also reported a large number of requests for Russian energy supplies from a range of buyers amid what they describe as a grave global energy crisis that is unsettling oil and gas markets.
Outlook
How large and lasting the windfall proves to be will depend on the duration of the Iran-related crisis and its effects on global shipping and prices. Exchange rate reference: ($1 = 78.3000 roubles).