Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the price of gold significantly higher, now expecting it to reach $5,400 per ounce by December 2026, up from its earlier projection of $4,900. This adjustment reflects the bank's recognition that a major upside risk it had identified previously is now coming to fruition and is anticipated to continue influencing the market.
Daan Struyven, a strategist at Goldman Sachs, explained that private-sector diversification into gold has commenced and is unlikely to reverse in the coming year, effectively raising the baseline for the bank's price estimates. While central bank acquisitions were the main catalysts behind the gold price advances throughout 2023 and 2024, the pace of gains accelerated in 2025. This acceleration resulted from central banks competing with private investors for a finite supply of bullion.
In 2025 alone, gold prices surged by 67%, and this upward momentum has carried into early 2026. The monthly volume of gold purchases by central banks has averaged around 60 tonnes, a figure substantially higher than the average monthly acquisitions before 2022.
Struyven highlighted two key developments indicating that demand for gold is expanding beyond official channels to include private investors. Firstly, holdings in western gold ETFs have increased by about 500 tonnes since the opening months of 2025, aligning with levels expected following U.S. interest rate cuts, after lagging behind in 2024. Secondly, there has been an expansion in newer mechanisms for hedging against macroeconomic policy risks. This growth includes rising physical gold acquisitions by high-net-worth families and an increase in investors seeking call options on gold. These more discreet flows have complicated market tracking and contributed to a widening gap between observed prices and those predicted by traditional models.
Goldman Sachs assumes that these macro policy hedging strategies will remain stable throughout 2026. Struyven remarked, "Our expectation is that hedges against global macroeconomic policy risks will hold steady since these perceived risks are unlikely to be fully resolved within 2026, making the elevated early 2026 gold price a sustainable foundation for our forecast." Unlike election-related hedges seen in late 2024, which dissipated once results were clear, the perception of enduring global macro policy risks appears more persistent.
Although the strategist acknowledges the forecast carries two-sided risks, he emphasizes that the outlook is considerably skewed toward higher prices. Persistent global policy uncertainty may encourage private investors to continue increasing their gold allocations.
However, Struyven also cautions that a significant improvement in confidence regarding long-term fiscal and monetary policies could prompt a reversal in macro hedging activities, which presents a downside risk to the gold price forecast.