Goldman Sachs adjusted its short-term oil-price outlook following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while maintaining its medium-term projections unchanged. The bank said the recent diplomatic development reduced the immediate risk premium and signaled early signs of energy flows returning through the waterway.
Brent crude and U.S. crude futures fell into the mid-$90s per barrel after the ceasefire was announced. Goldman strategists described the events as "largely in line" with their baseline assumption that energy would start moving through the Strait over the weekend and that Persian Gulf exports would gradually return to pre-war volumes over roughly one month.
As a result, Goldman lowered its second-quarter price forecasts for both benchmarks. Brent was trimmed to $90 per barrel from $99, and WTI was cut to $87 per barrel from $91. The bank attributed those reductions to a diminishing risk premium at the front of the curve and early evidence of recovering oil flows through the Strait.
Goldman left its later-quarter forecasts intact. For the third quarter, the bank kept Brent at $82 per barrel and WTI at $77 per barrel. For the fourth quarter, Brent remained forecast at $80 and WTI at $75.
Despite the downward move in near-term forecasts, strategists cautioned that uncertainty remains. They cited a characterization of the Iran truce as "fragile" by Vice President Vance and reiterated that price risks are still skewed to the upside should disruptions lengthen or if crude production losses become persistent.
The bank set out two upside scenarios. In an adverse case where the ceasefire collapses and the Strait's reopening is delayed by a month, Goldman projects Brent would average $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter, assuming a full recovery of Persian Gulf production thereafter. In a more severe scenario - where production losses persist at 2 million barrels per day - the bank sees prices rising to $115 per barrel.
Goldman also revised its view on European natural gas. The benchmark TTF price fell sharply to 45 EUR/MWh after the ceasefire news, and the bank reduced its second-quarter TTF forecast to 50 EUR/MWh from a prior 70 EUR/MWh. Strategists pointed to unexpectedly weak Chinese LNG demand, which has kept European LNG imports above earlier projections and diminished the need for as large a risk premium.
The bank's second-half TTF forecast was left largely unchanged at 42 EUR/MWh, a figure Goldman notes is modestly below current forwards of 46 EUR/MWh. However, strategists stressed that gas price risks remain skewed to the upside. They warned that if LNG shipments through the Strait face further delays or if infrastructure were damaged, the market "would require broader demand destruction, likely driving TTF prices to test a higher range above 75 EUR/MWh."
Goldman's revisions reflect a nearer-term easing of risk premia tied to the maritime reopening, while the firm preserves higher-price contingencies should geopolitical or production shocks re-emerge. The bank's position underscores a continued focus on how physical flow restoration and prospective production losses will influence both oil and gas markets in the coming quarters.