Goldman Sachs has revised lower its oil-price outlook for the second quarter of 2026, cutting its average forecast for Brent crude to $90 per barrel and for U.S. crude to $87 per barrel. These revised Q2 estimates come after the bank had previously expected Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to average $99 and $91 per barrel, respectively.
The change in Goldman’s forecasts followed a diplomatic development: the United States and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The announcement generated market optimism that the Strait of Hormuz - a crucial shipping lane for global crude flows - might reopen, prompting a sharp pullback in prices earlier in the week. Brent had fallen by more than 11% so far this week on those hopes.
Price direction shifted again on Thursday. Traders and analysts pushed oil higher amid renewed uncertainty about whether the ceasefire would endure and as the Strait of Hormuz remained subject to restrictions. Those anxieties undercut the initial optimism that had driven the midweek decline.
Separately, ANZ issued a note describing a materially tightened global crude balance driven by a series of supply disruptions. The bank said the market has moved rapidly from an early-year surplus to what it characterises as a sizeable deficit. ANZ highlighted a "credible risk" that between 1 and 2 million barrels per day of production capacity could be permanently lost or materially constrained. The bank specified several sources of that potential loss: mature fields, constrained export systems and producers operating under persistent sanctions or with limited financing capabilities.
ANZ added that if a recovery in flows stalls at the levels seen this week, the market could be left with structural deficits in excess of 4-5 million barrels per day. Under that scenario, the bank argued that sustained crude prices above $100 per barrel would likely be required to rein in demand and trigger inventory drawdowns that would help rebalance the market.
Market context and immediate drivers
The market reaction in recent sessions illustrates two competing dynamics. On one hand, the ceasefire announcement briefly raised expectations that key shipping routes might re-open and that geopolitical risk premiums could be removed. On the other hand, practical doubts about the durability of that ceasefire and operational constraints at the Strait of Hormuz have kept a floor under prices and prompted a reappraisal of medium-term supply risk.
Goldman’s trimming of Q2 forecasts to $90 and $87 reflects the immediate, price-lowering influence of the ceasefire-related optimism. Yet the subsequent price uptick and ANZ’s assessment underline that structural supply vulnerabilities remain and could push prices substantially higher if curtailed production is not restored.
Implications for markets and sectors
- Producers and exporters: Firms operating in or dependent on flows through the Strait of Hormuz face continued operational and pricing uncertainty.
- Refining and trading: Volatility in physical flows and the prospect of persistent deficits could disrupt refining margins and trading strategies that rely on predictable crude availability.
- Energy markets broadly: The combination of geopolitical uncertainty and the risk of permanent capacity losses introduces upside price risk that could shift investment and hedging behavior.
Note: The article reports on forecast revisions and market commentary as stated. It does not introduce new forecasts or quantitative estimates beyond those provided by the cited firms and analysts.