Commodities February 3, 2026

Gold Nears $5,000 as U.S.-Iran Incidents Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

Spot and futures climb after reports of a downed drone and tanker encounter ahead of planned talks

By Leila Farooq
Gold Nears $5,000 as U.S.-Iran Incidents Fuel Safe-Haven Demand

Gold regained ground in early Asian trading as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions spurred safe-haven buying. Spot gold climbed toward the $5,000/oz mark and futures jumped above $5,000/oz, while other precious metals also advanced. Market attention remains divided between geopolitical risk and shifts in monetary policy expectations.

Key Points

  • Spot gold rose 0.9% to $4,995.60/oz and April futures climbed 1.7% to $5,017.19/oz during early Asian trade.
  • Geopolitical incidents - a U.S. strike on an Iranian drone in the Arabian Sea and Iranian gunboats approaching a U.S.-linked tanker in the Strait of Hormuz - drove safe-haven buying.
  • Other precious metals advanced: spot silver to $85.5245/oz and spot platinum to $2,256.04/oz; gold remains up nearly 15% year-to-date in 2026.

Gold prices climbed in early Asian trading on Wednesday as fresh signs of U.S.-Iran friction increased demand for safe-haven assets.

Spot gold rose 0.9% to $4,995.60 an ounce by 19:18 ET (00:18 GMT), while April gold futures gained 1.7% to $5,017.19/oz. The uptick followed a sharp rebound on Tuesday and ongoing dip-buying after last week saw prices fall by more than $1,000.

Other precious metals extended their recovery on Wednesday. Spot silver increased 0.5% to $85.5245/oz and spot platinum climbed 1.7% to $2,256.04/oz.


Geopolitical developments were central to the move higher. Overnight reports indicated that the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone in the Arabian Sea. Separately, Iranian gunboats were reported to have approached a U.S.-linked tanker in the Strait of Hormuz. Those incidents weighed on investor confidence and pushed traders toward hedges such as gold.

The two security events also complicated market reaction to announcements that Tehran and Washington plan to hold talks on Friday. Earlier news of the planned talks had eased some risk concerns and reduced demand for havens, but the recent incidents partially undercut that relief.


Beyond geopolitics, recent gold weakness had been driven primarily by shifts in monetary policy expectations. Markets had reacted to bets that U.S. President Donald Trump’s nomination for head of the Federal Reserve, Kevin Warsh, would be less dovish than hoped. That outlook helped push the dollar higher and applied pressure on precious metal prices. Gold was also exposed to profit-taking pressure after it surged to a near-record level of almost $5,600/oz last week.

Despite the pullback, gold remains substantially higher this year, trading up nearly 15% so far in 2026.

Analysts at ANZ noted in a recent briefing that the core drivers supporting gold prices remain intact - namely haven demand, physical buying, and central bank purchases.


The near-term outlook appears to hinge on developments in the Gulf and whether scheduled talks between Tehran and Washington proceed as planned. For now, a combination of geopolitical headlines and evolving expectations about U.S. monetary policy continues to push flows back into precious metals.

Risks

  • Renewed clashes or further maritime incidents in the Gulf could sustain elevated safe-haven demand, affecting commodities and shipping-related sectors.
  • Shifts in expectations about U.S. Federal Reserve leadership and a stronger dollar could continue to pressure precious metal prices and impact related financial markets.
  • Market relief tied to planned talks between Tehran and Washington may be fragile if follow-up incidents undermine the negotiation process, creating volatility for metals and risk-sensitive assets.

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