Investors and market watchers continue to weigh whether gold or Bitcoin better serves as a hedge, and a recent analysis from Yardeni Research lays out the similarities and contrasts between the two assets. Both, the firm notes, lack cash flows that normally support valuation models, creating a shared difficulty in determining intrinsic worth.
Yardeni Research states that "both the cryptocurrency and the precious metal are impossible to value because they don’t pay any interest or dividends." The firm emphasizes that while Bitcoin carries a fixed supply, higher gold prices can spur increased mining activity and thus expand the metal’s available supply over time.
Beyond supply dynamics, the research group underscores practical distinctions. Bitcoin is purely digital and therefore may face future technological vulnerabilities, whereas gold exists physically and must be stored in secure facilities. These contrasts, Yardeni argues, shape how investors might treat each asset when managing risk and exposure.
Bitcoin’s market history, the note says, has been defined by extreme swings. The cryptocurrency remained mainly below $10,000 between 2017 and 2019, climbed to almost $70,000 during 2021, plunged below $20,000 in late 2022, and then surged to nearly $125,000 in late 2025 before easing back toward $90,000.
Gold’s path has been steadier by comparison in recent years, according to Yardeni. After a multi-year consolidation, the metal broke decisively above $2,000 per ounce in March 2024, a move the firm identifies as the beginning of a sustained rally. Since that breakout, Yardeni notes gold has appreciated roughly 2.5 times, while silver has advanced about 3.7 times following its technical rise in early May 2024.
Following gold’s climb past $3,000 in early 2025, Yardeni began outlining a longer-range forecast that envisions the metal rising toward $10,000 by the end of the decade. "That would be a five-fold increase from its breakout to new highs in 2024," the firm said, framing the projection as a continuation of the momentum that began with the March 2024 breakout.
Currency moves are another factor Yardeni highlights. Gold reached fresh records after President Donald Trump said "the dollar is doing great," a remark the firm interprets as an embrace of a weaker currency. Yardeni explains that a softer dollar can have differing effects on the two assets: it may reduce Bitcoin’s value when converted into foreign currencies, potentially encouraging overseas holders to realize gains or reduce positions and rotate into gold.
On the inflation front, the firm adds that "A weaker dollar may put upward pressure on U.S. inflation, which would also boost the price of gold," underlining how shifts in the currency environment and inflation expectations can feed into precious-metals demand.
Implications for markets: Yardeni’s analysis ties together price action, supply mechanics, and currency dynamics to explain why some investors might increasingly view gold as a defensive alternative to a highly volatile Bitcoin. The firm’s projections for gold imply notable consequences for commodity markets and for investors weighing allocations between cryptocurrencies and traditional stores of value.