European natural-gas prices extended a steep rally on Monday, building on last week’s dramatic gains as the escalation of conflict in the Middle East continued to unsettle global energy supplies.
Market moves
As of 08:50 GMT, the Dutch TTF natural gas futures contract rose 16.6% to 62.26 euros per megawatt-hour, after earlier touching 69.50 euros in the session. United States natural gas futures were up 5.4%, trading at $3.36 per MMBtu.
The latest leg higher followed an extraordinary upswing in prices last week, when European natural gas climbed 67% over the period, a move ANZ analysts described as the largest weekly increase since the energy crisis of 2022.
Supply shock driven by LNG outage
Traders attributed the renewed pressure on prices to the forced shutdown of Ras Laffan in Qatar, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas complex, which has raised fresh questions about the availability of international LNG cargoes. Market participants cautioned that even if hostilities were to end immediately, disruptions to supply chains could continue to affect shipments.
That interruption arrives as Western Europe approaches a period characterized by relatively low gas storage levels, leaving the region particularly vulnerable to supply shocks and increasing doubts about the ability to rebuild inventories ahead of the winter heating season.
Wider market repercussions
Energy markets beyond gas were also impacted. U.S. crude oil futures (WTI) moved back above $100 per barrel as traders factored in the risk of a sustained supply disruption from the Middle East. The increases in oil and gas prices reverberated through financial markets, contributing to a decline in global bond prices as investors reassessed expectations for inflation and interest-rate policy in response to higher energy costs.
The situation remains fluid and market participants are watching storage trajectories and shipment schedules closely for signals on how long elevated prices may persist.
Summary
European gas benchmarks rose strongly on Monday following the forced closure of Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex, adding to last week’s surge. The move has amplified concerns about supply availability, particularly as Western Europe faces lower storage levels heading into the replenishment season. Oil and bond markets have also reacted to the heightened risk of an extended supply shock from the Middle East.