President Donald Trump urged nations struggling for jet fuel after the shutdown of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz to turn to the United States, posting on social media this week that, "We have plenty." Data from U.S. government statistics and independent vessel trackers indicate that assertion does not square with the current flows of aviation fuel.
Vessel-tracking service Kpler estimates about 500,000 barrels per day of jet fuel move out of the Strait of Hormuz, with the bulk of that volume destined for Europe and smaller amounts headed to markets in Asia and Africa. By contrast, the Energy Information Administration, the Department of Energy's statistical arm, reports that total U.S. jet fuel exports averaged 219,000 barrels per day last year.
Kpler analyst Matt Smith summed up the mismatch bluntly: "It is very, very, very unlikely that the U.S. can replace the Strait of Hormuz supply." That view reflects the gap between the flows that previously transited the strait and what the U.S. is currently shipping abroad.
At the same time, EIA data underline that the U.S. is the world's largest consumer of jet fuel and that most jet fuel produced domestically is used within the country. EIA reported that refiners and fuel blenders produced 1.97 million barrels per day of jet fuel last week, compared with domestic demand of 1.79 million barrels per day. That narrow surplus, combined with concentrated production and regional logistics constraints, limits the ability of U.S. supplies to be rapidly redirected overseas.
Domestic production of jet fuel is heavily concentrated on the U.S. Gulf Coast. Major demand centers on the East and West coasts have long relied on imports to meet local needs. The West Coast is particularly exposed now because many usual suppliers in Asia are among those hit hardest by the Strait of Hormuz closure. Asian refiners have cut production and in some cases banned exports, leaving markets such as California searching for alternative suppliers within the United States.
U.S. exports of all fuels, including jet fuel, have risen as the country remains one of the major producers not directly affected by the war. That dynamic has supported shipments to overseas customers even as domestic markets absorb more supply. Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser to Gulf Oil, said jet fuel prices in the United States have risen since the Iran war began, but have climbed less than in markets directly impacted by the Strait of Hormuz blockade. The comparatively smaller price rise in the U.S. has helped encourage higher exports, Kloza said.
Some unusual trade flows have already appeared. According to industry commentary, at least four to five cargoes of jet fuel and diesel were loaded in the New York Harbor region for Europe, reversing the more typical pattern in which products move from Europe to the U.S. East Coast.
Wholesale jet fuel prices in much of the United States stand between $4 and $5 a gallon, GasBuddy data show. By comparison, Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, noted that typical jet fuel prices in the U.S. Gulf Coast are between $2.50 and $3 a gallon. That spread reflects regional differences in supply, logistics and refining economics.
De Haan warned that rising export demand would tend to lift prices for U.S. consumers. "The more demand there is for U.S. jet fuel, the higher the prices will be. It’s like the more hands in the cookie jar, the fewer cookies," he said. Higher domestic prices would present a policy challenge for the administration as shipments abroad increase.
Summary: The president suggested countries affected by the Strait of Hormuz closure purchase jet fuel from the U.S., saying the country has ample supply. However, EIA and Kpler data indicate U.S. exports and production patterns make it unlikely the United States can replace the roughly 500,000 barrels per day flowing from the strait. Increased U.S. exports are occurring, but they are already influencing domestic prices and regional supply balances.
- Key facts: Kpler data indicate about 500,000 bpd of jet fuel flow out of the Strait of Hormuz; total U.S. jet fuel exports averaged 219,000 bpd last year; U.S. jet fuel production was 1.97 million bpd last week against domestic demand of 1.79 million bpd.
- Supply structure: U.S. jet fuel production is concentrated on the Gulf Coast, while East and West Coast demand centers have historically relied on imports.
- Price signals: U.S. wholesale jet fuel prices range from $4 to $5 a gallon in most areas, with Gulf Coast prices typically between $2.50 and $3 a gallon, incentivizing increased exports.