Bank of America has adjusted its oil and macroeconomic forecasts after accounting for ongoing interruptions to energy movements via the Strait of Hormuz linked to the Iran war. In the lender's revised base case, oil will trade near $100 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 even as broader averages settle to a Brent estimate of $92.50 per barrel for the year.
The bank's central scenario assumes the conflict concludes before the end of April, but still incorporates a pronounced supply shortfall: a 4 million barrels per day (bpd) deficit in the second quarter, followed by an average shortfall of 2.5 million bpd in the second half of the year.
"In this new base case, Brent would average $92.50/bbl in 2026, with oil prices around $100/bbl for the rest of the year and converging lower below $70/bbl by end-2027," economists led by Claudio Irigoyen said in a note.
Bank of America's team characterizes the situation not as a pure oil shock but as an "energy shock," highlighting that elevated natural gas and fertilizer prices are amplifying inflationary pressures — a phenomenon that is especially acute for the Euro area and developing economies. Those compound price effects are reflected in the bank's broader macro revisions.
Across the global economy, Bank of America has trimmed its 2026 growth forecast by 40 basis points to 3.1% while raising its global inflation outlook by 90 basis points to 3.3%. The effects are uneven by region.
- Euro area growth is the most affected in the bank's view, with GDP now seen at just 0.6% for the year and inflation bumped up by 160 basis points to 3.3%.
- The U.S. faces a milder adjustment: growth has been revised down by 50 basis points to 2.3%, and headline PCE inflation is expected to peak near 3.8% in the second quarter.
- China is projected to hold up better, with the bank retaining a 4.5% growth forecast after a modest 20 basis point downward revision, supported in the note by policy measures and resilient exports.
These macro shifts carry implications for central banks. Bank of America now expects the European Central Bank to raise rates by 25 basis points in both June and July, which would lift the deposit rate to 2.50%, before the ECB commences a cutting cycle in 2027. The Bank of England is modeled to mirror that path with two equivalent hikes in the same months.
For the Federal Reserve, the bank has delayed the timing of anticipated rate cuts from a June-July window to September-October, while acknowledging "high risks that these cuts may not materialize." The economists added that the current shock makes rate reductions less likely in the near term, though they still see a possibility that cuts could occur later in the year.
Bank of America also set out a downside escalation scenario to illustrate the potential for markedly worse outcomes. Under that adverse path, oil would average $130 per barrel in 2026 with a peak above $150. The bank warns that the "non-linear consequences of much higher energy prices, coupled with a significant correction in asset prices, could lead the global economy into a recessionary scenario." The team treats this escalation as unlikely under current conditions but cautions that tail risks are thicker than markets are pricing.
Taken together, the bank's revisions point to a higher-for-longer energy price environment in its baseline, broader upward pressure on inflation, and a recalibration of central-bank timing and magnitude for policy moves. The largest near-term economic pain is expected in energy- and import-dependent regions, especially the Euro area and many developing economies, even as other major economies such as China are forecast to show relative resilience.