BMO Capital Markets on Monday published a bullish scenario that would take gold futures well above current levels, projecting a rise past $6,000/oz by the fourth quarter of this year. The bank released the outlook on a day the yellow metal traded above $5,100/oz for the first time in history.
Gold posted an extraordinary gain last year, recording its best annual performance since 1979 with a 67.5% advance. That momentum has continued into 2026, with gold up 15.9% year-to-date. Silver, meanwhile, experienced an even sharper move in 2025, jumping 140%, and has added another 55% so far in 2026.
Analysts at BMO, led by Helen Amos and George Heppel, described the publication as an exercise in defining a bull case rather than presenting a baseline forecast. In their note, they said recent geopolitical developments - including events in Venezuela and Greenland and threats of 100% tariffs on Canada - prompted them to lay out a scenario in which precious metals see an accelerated inflow of investor demand.
Under the bull-case construct, BMO forecasts gold at $6,350/oz by the fourth quarter of 2026 and at $8,650/oz by the fourth quarter of 2027. The bank’s analysts also anticipate silver topping $150/oz within the year and see Platinum Futures potentially moving above $4,000/oz.
According to BMO, the scenario envisions a world where risk events prompt investors to increase their allocations to gold and other precious metals amid heightened concern over governance, monetary policy, government balance sheets and the resilience of fiat currencies. The firm ties the metals rally in 2025 to a combination of investor flight to safe havens during President Donald Trump’s trade war, expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts, a rise in central bank demand and constraints on supply.
Several geopolitical flashpoints in January have, the note says, helped propel the rush into gold. BMO was careful to note that the bull-case projections are not its base case but are intended to illustrate how prices could behave under sustained risk-driven flows into the sector.
The note arrives amid a broad reassessment of safe-haven allocations by market participants. While the BMO exercise maps an outsized outcome for metal prices, it explicitly frames the numbers as conditional on continued and escalated risk events that would push investor behaviour toward precious metals.
Key takeaways
- Gold has surpassed $5,100/oz and is up 15.9% YTD in 2026 after a 67.5% gain last year.
- BMO’s bull scenario projects gold at $6,350/oz by Q4 2026 and $8,650/oz by Q4 2027; silver could exceed $150/oz this year; platinum could top $4,000/oz.
- Drivers cited include geopolitical shocks, anticipated U.S. rate cuts, rising central bank demand and supply constraints.
Risks and uncertainties
- BMO emphasizes this is a bull-case exercise, not its base-case forecast - the outcome depends on sustained risk events.
- The scenario is contingent on investor rotation into precious metals prompted by geopolitical or policy shocks; if such shocks do not persist or intensify, the projected price paths may not materialize.
- Market dynamics referenced - including central bank demand, policy expectations and supply constraints - are variable and could alter the trajectory of metals prices.