Gold’s bounce on the day did little to change a broader technical and macro picture that strategists at Bank of America say favors a prolonged consolidation for the metal rather than an immediate recovery.
XAU/USD rose 2.6% yesterday, with Gold Futures also gaining, though they are now up less than 4% year to date. Despite the uptick, Bank of America strategists point to several signals that argue for a drawn-out corrective phase rather than a sustained run higher.
Macro forces and positioning
Bank of America strategist Peter Berezin identified three principal drivers behind the recent weakness in bullion. First, the U.S. dollar has strengthened while interest-rate expectations have moved higher. "From a macro perspective, a stronger greenback and higher rates are usually bad news for gold," he said.
Second, market positioning amplified the move. Berezin noted that gold - and particularly silver - entered March in an overbought state. When assets are overbought, risk-off episodes can prompt sharp liquidations as leveraged or short-term investors exit positions. He cited prior episodes with similar dynamics, including October 2008, when gold fell sharply despite broader market stress.
Third, demand from the official sector appears to be shifting. Some central banks are reportedly moderating purchases or moving to sell reserves. Poland is reportedly considering gold sales to fund defense spending, Turkey has been selling gold to support its currency, and there are indications that certain Gulf states may be slowing purchases amid weaker export revenues.
Berezin and his colleagues argue that the confluence of technical consolidation, tighter financial conditions and softer central-bank demand creates a backdrop in which gold could remain under pressure across the coming quarters, even after a multi-year advance.
Technical outlook - a wave-four correction
Bank of America strategist Paul Ciana framed the move as a corrective "wave-four" pattern, a phase that commonly follows a strong rally and can persist for several months. "Price patterns and momentum signals indicate that gold remains in a wave-four consolidation phase," he wrote, adding that the structure "can reasonably persist through Q2 and into Q3."
Ciana said the bank views risk toward the $4,000 level, and highlighted the 50-week moving average - currently near $3,967 - as a key technical reference. Given the scale of gold’s prior advance, he said a deeper retracement would not be unusual.
Putting the earlier rally in context, the strategists noted that prices surged from around $1,810 in late 2023 to nearly $6,000 in early 2026. Within that trajectory, Ciana described a move toward $3,700 as consistent with a standard correction following such a strong advance, saying "a retracement toward $3,700 would not be unusual."
Implications and near-term expectations
Taken together, the strategists' assessment implies that gold may struggle to quickly reclaim its January highs and that trading could remain range-bound with a downside bias in the near term. The technical pattern and central-bank behavior cited suggest the market could be vulnerable to further pressure if macro conditions or positioning dynamics deteriorate.
For now, the recent intraday gain does not negate the risks identified by Bank of America, and the bank's framework anticipates a corrective phase that could extend into the middle of the year.
Key takeaways
- Macro headwinds - a stronger dollar and higher rate expectations - are weighing on bullion.
- Overbought positioning and leveraged exits can amplify declines during risk-off periods.
- Shifts in official-sector demand, including potential sales or slower purchases by some central banks, may reduce a key support for gold prices.