Major investment houses have adjusted their 2026 oil price outlooks upward following a sharp price rally linked to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran. The conflict has been cited by some firms as causing notable supply interruptions in the region, prompting a reassessment of next year’s average crude forecasts.
Macquarie raised its fiscal year 2026 WTI forecast to roughly $83 per barrel, up from a prior estimate of $58 per barrel, explicitly citing significant supply disruptions connected to the conflict in the Middle East.
At 2113 GMT on Thursday, Brent crude futures were trading at $107.15 a barrel while U.S. WTI was at $93.79, reflecting the elevated market levels that have prompted these forecast revisions.
Several major brokers and research houses provided updated guidance or scenario-based commentary on how prices might evolve across 2026, often linking outcomes to the duration and severity of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and other regional chokepoints.
Quarterly and scenario forecasts cited by brokers
- J.P. Morgan set out a quarterly progression for Brent in 2026, anticipating an average of $100 per barrel in Q2, $90 per barrel in Q3 and $80 per barrel in Q4 of 2026.
- Standard Chartered forecast Brent averages of $78 per barrel in Q1 2026 and $98 per barrel in Q2 2026.
- Bank of America expects Brent to average $80 per barrel in Q2 2026 but to ease to around $76 per barrel in Q3 2026.
- ANZ raised its Q1 2026 Brent forecast to $100 per barrel from a prior $90 per barrel.
- Citi outlined expectations of Brent averaging $75 per barrel in Q1 2026, $78 per barrel in Q2 2026 and $68 per barrel in Q3 2026.
Other houses added contingency views on more extreme dislocations. Some analysts warned that sustained closure or prolonged disruption of the Strait of Hormuz could lift crude well beyond current forecasts.
- Barclays said Brent forecasts could climb to $100 per barrel should the Strait of Hormuz take four to six weeks to normalise, while its baseline assumes a normalisation in two to three weeks.
- UBS indicated 2026 prices could move above $100 per barrel and into territory above $120 per barrel if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted, with such levels bringing more severe demand destruction.
- At least one research house flagged that crude prices could rise to $150 per barrel or above if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several weeks.
Implications and market dynamics
Analysts’ upward revisions reflect how quickly geopolitical events can shift supply expectations. The brokers’ public guidance includes both point forecasts for specific quarters and scenario-driven stress cases tied to shipping lane disruptions. Firms are using a mix of baseline assumptions about normalisation timelines and contingency scenarios that map to longer closures or heavier damage to regional exports.
Those expectations will inform corporate planning across energy producers, refiners, shipping and trading firms, and will feed into broader market pricing and risk premia until the security situation and export flows stabilise.
Sources of uncertainty in this outlook principally hinge on how long disruptions to regional flows persist and whether the Strait of Hormuz or other routes return to normal in the near term. Brokers’ forecasts incorporate varying assumptions about the timing and extent of normalisation, which produces materially different outcomes for 2026 averages.