Major brokerages have raised their average oil-price forecasts for 2026 after a resurgence of fighting linked to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran drove crude benchmarks sharply higher this month.
Morgan Stanley upgraded its Brent forecast for 2027 to $80 a barrel, saying it expects a sustained repricing of geopolitical risk following a disruption in the Strait of Hormuz that left the market structurally tighter than it had previously assumed. By 0708 GMT on Wednesday, Brent crude futures were trading at $100.32 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude stood at $89.24.
The recent military exchanges between Israel and Iran continued into Wednesday, and Iran’s military rejected President Donald Trump’s assertion that the U.S. was in negotiations to end the war.
Broker updates and selected notes
- Morgan Stanley - Raised its 2027 Brent forecast to $80 per barrel and flagged a lasting repricing of geopolitical risk after the Strait of Hormuz disruption left the market tighter than previously assumed.
- Goldman Sachs - Listed with benchmarks in the table as $85 for 2026 Brent and $80 for 2027 Brent, alongside $79 and $75 for 2026 and 2027 WTI respectively.
- J.P. Morgan - Appears with a $72 marker in the table for 2027 Brent.
- Standard Chartered - Shown with a 2026 Brent reference of $85.50 and expects Brent averages of $78 per barrel in Q1 2026 and $98 per barrel in Q2 2026.
- Bank of America - Listed with a 2026 Brent reference of $77.50 and a 2027 Brent of $66; it expects Brent to average $80 per barrel in Q2 2026 but to average $76 per barrel in Q3 2026.
- Barclays - Flagged a 2026 Brent reference of $85, and said that if the Strait of Hormuz takes four to six weeks to normalise Brent could climb to $100 per barrel; the bank’s forecast assumes the Strait normalises in two to three weeks.
- ANZ - Raised its forecast for Q1 2026 Brent to $100 per barrel from $90 per barrel.
- BMI - Displayed with $70 markers for 2026 and 2027 Brent and $68 markers for 2026 and 2027 WTI; BMI expects a 2026 average of $67 per barrel and $69 per barrel in Q3 and Q4 2026 respectively.
- Citi - Listed with 2026 Brent of $71 and 2027 Brent of $64, and expects Brent to average $75 per barrel in Q1 2026, $78 per barrel in Q2 2026, and $68 per barrel in Q3 2026.
- HSBC - Appears in the table with a 2026 Brent reference of $80 and 2027 Brent of $70.
- Macquarie - Stated that 2026 crude prices could rise to $150 per barrel or above if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for several weeks.
- UBS - Shown with 2026 Brent of $72 and 2027 Brent of $70; it expects 2026 prices to move towards above $100 per barrel and into the $120+ per barrel territory with more severe demand destruction if flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain disrupted.
Across the set of broker notes and table entries, analysts revised up near- and medium-term price expectations and laid out scenario sensitivities tied to the duration and severity of disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz. Several houses included quarter-by-quarter assumptions for 2026 that show peak averages in Q2 should disruptions persist, and lower averages in later quarters if flows normalise.
While the market reaction to the recent strikes and naval bottlenecks has been immediate, firms differ on the degree to which the repricing will be sustained if the situation returns to a more normal flow pattern in weeks rather than months.
Data limitations - The broker table contains a range of 2026 and 2027 benchmarks for Brent and WTI across firms; some entries are expressed as quarterly averages tied to potential closure durations in the Strait of Hormuz, and a number of firms noted contingency paths that would see much higher prices if the Strait remained closed for several weeks.