Analyst action and market context
Wolfe Research has lowered its price objective on Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ: TSCO) to $57.00 from $60.00, maintaining an Outperform rating on the shares. TSCO was trading at $50.96 at the time of the report, which places the stock under the average analyst target of $59; analyst targets range from $48 to $70, according to InvestingPro data. The shares have exhibited recent weakness, falling 6.82% over the last week, though analysts broadly continue to express a positive stance toward the rural lifestyle retailer.
Quarter-to-date trends and sales cadence
Wolfe Research noted that Tractor Supply’s quarter-to-date performance has improved versus management’s earlier expectations. January sales, initially projected to be negative, are now forecast in the +1-3% range for the full year, a revision the firm says brings results back in line with trend. In outlining the seasonal composition of the quarter, Wolfe Research observed that January represents roughly 30% of quarterly sales, with February contributing about 30% and March around 40%.
The firm highlighted that the updated modest growth outlook is consistent with Tractor Supply’s 4.31% revenue growth over the last twelve months, although that pace remains below the company’s five-year revenue compound annual growth rate of 12%.
Investor sentiment and valuation signals
Despite the improved near-term trajectory, investor sentiment has stayed cautious. Wolfe Research indicated that investors view the company’s same-store sales and earnings per share guidance for 2026 as aggressive; the stock fell 8% following that guidance announcement. InvestingPro’s assessment suggests TSCO appears overvalued against its Fair Value metric, even as the retailer retains a "GOOD" total financial health score of 2.5 and shows particularly strong profitability measures.
InvestingPro also highlighted that Tractor Supply has increased its dividend for 16 consecutive years, supporting income-focused investors with a current dividend yield of 1.81%.
Cost leverage and expense assumptions
Management reiterated that, at the midpoint of the same-store sales range of +1-3%, the company expects to achieve operating leverage. Expense leverage is anticipated to come from a 1-2% reduction in store-level hours attributed to efficiencies and restrained additions to Store Support Center headcount. The company also acknowledged that wage growth will remain higher than comparable sales growth. InvestingPro’s analysis characterizes Tractor Supply as operating with a moderate level of debt and producing sufficient cash flows to cover interest expenses.
Margin outlook and revenue mix
For 2026, Tractor Supply projects gross margins will expand by 15-25 basis points, largely offset by a comparable magnitude of SG&A deleverage at an approximately 2% comparable sales level. Management expects the margin improvement to stem from tariff cost recapture and higher-margin contributions from initiatives such as Direct Sales, Retail Media, and the Garden category.
Recent quarterly performance and peer analyst responses
The company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results fell short of Wall Street expectations. Tractor Supply reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.43 versus forecasts of $0.47, and revenue of $3.9 billion compared with the expected $4.02 billion. Comparable sales grew by 0.3%, a figure the company attributed to weaker discretionary demand and the absence of storm-related sales that had boosted the prior year.
In reaction to the quarterly miss, several brokers adjusted their targets while retaining positive ratings. Evercore ISI cut its price target to $60.00 from $65.00 and maintained an Outperform rating. Telsey Advisory Group reduced its target to $63.00 from $70.00, also keeping an Outperform rating; Telsey noted the company continued to gain share in its core farm and ranch segment.
Analyst recalibration and next steps
Those revised targets and the mixed guidance have led analysts to recalibrate expectations for Tractor Supply’s near-term performance. The information available highlights both areas of operational resilience - including profitability and dividend consistency - and points of uncertainty such as guidance assumptions for 2026 and recent pressures on discretionary spending.
Key financial and operational data referenced in this article are based on the statements and analyses reported above. No additional forecasts or projections have been introduced beyond those provided by the firm and cited analysts.