William Blair has reaffirmed an Outperform rating on Affirm Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:AFRM) in the run-up to the company’s forthcoming earnings release scheduled for Thursday. The firm signaled confidence that Affirm is positioned to top consensus forecasts for gross merchandise value (GMV), revenue and earnings before interest and taxes (EBIT) as it broadens its role in the buy now, pay later (BNPL) market.
Affirm shares were trading at $61.99 and have underperformed recently, falling nearly 10% over the past week, according to InvestingPro data. Despite that short-term weakness, William Blair points to a strong growth profile: Affirm recorded 37% revenue growth over the last twelve months and carries a market capitalization of $20.46 billion. At the same time, InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment indicates the stock may be trading above its intrinsic valuation.
William Blair attributed part of the recent stock pressure to market concerns it regards as overstated, specifically credit and regulatory questions. The firm argued that BNPL services fall outside the scope of a proposed credit card interest rate cap, suggesting that regulatory developments cited by some investors may not directly constrain Affirm’s core payment products.
Strategic partnerships form a central element of William Blair’s positive thesis. The firm emphasized Affirm’s commercial arrangements with large e-commerce platforms, naming Shopify (NYSE:SHOP), Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) and Expedia (NASDAQ:EXPE) as key collaborators. These alliances are presented as evidence of Affirm’s expanding distribution and customer reach within online commerce.
On long-term financial targets, William Blair anticipates that Affirm can sustain more than 20% organic revenue growth and achieve over 30% compound growth in EBIT. Those expectations underpin the firm’s continued Outperform rating ahead of the company’s quarterly results.
Investor attention on Affirm has also been reflected in recent analyst activity. Morgan Stanley upgraded its rating on Affirm from Equalweight to Overweight. Separately, Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage with an Overweight rating and set a price target of $85, citing the company’s payment innovations and funding model.
Corporate developments announced by Affirm reinforce the firm’s strategic push. The company entered a multi-year agreement with Intuit to incorporate BNPL functionality into QuickBooks Payments, aiming to deliver working capital flexibility to small and mid-sized businesses. Expedia Group deepened its collaboration by naming Affirm the exclusive BNPL provider for its U.S. brands and indicating plans to expand the arrangement into Canada. In addition, Affirm was chosen by Bolt as the default BNPL option for Bolt’s checkout platform.
Taken together, the analyst stance and recent commercial deals portray a company that William Blair believes is gaining traction in the BNPL market, even as valuations and headline regulatory concerns complicate short-term market sentiment.
Context and implications
William Blair's reiterated Outperform rating arrives at a sensitive moment for Affirm: the company shows robust top-line momentum and accumulating strategic partnerships, yet its shares have experienced recent volatility and face scrutiny over valuation and regulatory narratives. Investors will be watching the upcoming earnings print for confirmation that the company is hitting the operational milestones the firm outlined.