Wells Fargo has adjusted its 12-month price target for Aon Corp to $443 from $448 while leaving its Overweight rating on the insurance broker unchanged. The new target still implies material upside relative to Aon’s most recent market price of $349.64.
The firm’s revision follows the company’s publication of detailed guidance for fiscal 2026. That guidance lays out a set of financial objectives including strong adjusted EPS growth and organic revenue growth of mid-single-digits or higher.
Analysts are modeling EPS of $18.97 for fiscal year 2026. Based on the company’s roughly $75 billion market capitalization and those estimates, Aon is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 20.54.
Aon’s 2026 outlook also calls for margin improvement of 70 to 80 basis points, double-digit growth in free cash flow and share repurchases totaling $1 billion. The company quantified several first-quarter and recurring items in its guidance: expected interest expense of $185 million in the first quarter, an anticipated tax rate range of 19.5% to 20.5%, and non-cash pension expense of $80 million for the year with $20 million to $25 million of that occurring in Q1.
Foreign exchange movements are baked into the forecast as well, with Aon estimating a favorable FX impact of $0.39 on EPS for 2026 and projecting $0.36 of that benefit to occur in the first quarter.
Recent quarterly results offer additional context. For the fourth quarter of 2025, Aon reported adjusted earnings per share of $4.85, topping consensus estimates of $4.75. Revenue for the quarter came in at $4.3 billion, slightly below the expected $4.38 billion. Despite the revenue shortfall, the company’s shares registered a modest gain in premarket trading following the release.
Taken together, the guidance and quarterly results give investors a clearer view of Aon’s near-term profit trajectory, cash generation ambitions and capital return plans. Wells Fargo’s small downward tweak to the target price appears to reflect its review of that guidance while still recognizing upside from current levels under an Overweight stance.
Summary
Wells Fargo has reduced its Aon price target to $443 but kept an Overweight rating. Aon’s 2026 guidance projects strong adjusted EPS growth, mid-single-digit or greater organic growth, margin expansion, double-digit free cash flow growth and $1 billion in buybacks. Q4 2025 adjusted EPS beat estimates while revenue slightly missed.
Key points
- Wells Fargo lowered its price target on Aon to $443 from $448 and maintained an Overweight rating - relevant to equity investors and the financials sector.
- Aon’s 2026 guidance includes projected strong adjusted EPS growth, mid-single-digit or greater organic growth, 70-80 basis points of margin improvement, double-digit free cash flow growth and $1 billion in share buybacks - relevant to corporate finance and investor relations.
- Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $4.85 beat the $4.75 estimate while revenue of $4.3 billion slightly missed the $4.38 billion forecast - relevant to earnings-focused market participants and equity analysts.
Risks and uncertainties
- Revenue shortfall risk: Q4 2025 revenue fell short of expectations, which could concern investors focused on top-line trends - impacting equity valuations in the insurance and professional services sectors.
- Guidance sensitivity to FX and interest costs: The 2026 outlook includes specific FX and interest expense assumptions; deviations in currency movements or financing costs could alter outcomes - affecting corporate earnings and financial markets.
- Pension and tax items: Non-cash pension expense and the assumed tax rate range introduce accounting and tax-rate risks that could influence reported results - relevant to financial reporting and investor sentiment.
Investors evaluating Aon should weigh the company’s forward-looking targets against near-term revenue performance and the sensitivity of results to foreign exchange, interest costs and pension adjustments.