Analyst Ratings February 4, 2026

UBS trims TransDigm price target slightly to $1,800, keeps Buy as aftermarket growth cools

Analysts weigh decelerating aftermarket momentum, strong margins and recent earnings beats amid mixed broker views

By Derek Hwang TDG
UBS trims TransDigm price target slightly to $1,800, keeps Buy as aftermarket growth cools
TDG

UBS reduced its target on TransDigm to $1,800 from $1,804 while retaining a Buy rating, citing softer aftermarket growth and greater lumpiness in recent quarters. The company continues to report robust margins and recent earnings that outperformed expectations, prompting divergent responses from other brokers.

Key Points

  • UBS trimmed its TransDigm price target slightly to $1,800 from $1,804 and maintained a Buy rating despite recent stock weakness.
  • TransDigm reported strong margins and revenue growth - gross profit margin of 59.69% and revenue growth of 11.68% over the last twelve months - and beat Q1 2026 EPS and revenue estimates.
  • Broker responses vary: BMO raised its target to $1,550 and kept an Outperform rating, while Baird downgraded to Neutral and reduced its target to $1,400, highlighting differing views on margin and growth sustainability.

UBS adjusted its price target on TransDigm (NYSE:TDG) to $1,800 from $1,804 on Wednesday, while leaving its Buy rating intact. The change is modest in size, and comes as the stock has experienced a short-term pullback, falling 7.8% over the past week. Analyst target data compiled by InvestingPro still indicates upside potential, with a high target listed at $1,900.

In its note, UBS flagged questions around what constitutes TransDigm's normalized growth rate after the company showed a slowdown in aftermarket growth and increased lumpiness across recent quarters. Despite those reservations, the firm highlighted TransDigm's continued margin strength and revenue expansion. The company has reported gross profit margins of 59.69% and revenue growth of 11.68% over the last twelve months.

UBS's assessment assumes that TransDigm can sustain high single-digit growth supported by flight activity, pricing and modest content gains on current generation platforms. Even so, UBS observed that this pace sits below the broader industry average and is particularly distant from the trajectory of engine peers.

On profitability, UBS expects TransDigm to deliver steady high-teens EPS compounding going forward and characterized the firm's margin guidance as conservative. The research house also sees room for consensus estimates to move higher over multiple years, even under an assumption of high single-digit aftermarket growth.

Concerns that TransDigm may struggle to continue a bolt-on acquisition strategy were described by UBS as overdone. The research note points to the company announcing $3 billion in acquisitions over the past few months as evidence of ongoing deal activity. Market metrics cited alongside that view include a market capitalization of $71.49 billion and an InvestingPro financial health score labeled as "GOOD." The stock is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 40.57, reflecting investors' valuation of the franchise.

Recent company results have offered support for the more positive outlook. TransDigm reported first-quarter 2026 earnings per share of $8.23, ahead of the $8.09 analysts had forecast. Revenue also topped estimates, at $2.28 billion versus the $2.26 billion expected. The quarter produced EBITDA of $1,197 million with a 52.4% margin, a result that exceeded consensus assumptions.

Broker responses to those results have been mixed. BMO Capital raised its price target to $1,550 and reiterated an Outperform rating, pointing to TransDigm's strong margin profile as a central rationale. In contrast, Baird moved in the opposite direction, downgrading the stock from Outperform to Neutral and lowering its price target to $1,400 from $1,650. Baird's note focused on margin concerns and highlighted that original equipment manufacturer volumes are increasing at twice the rate of aftermarket business.

The combined picture in broker research reflects a balance between durable profitability metrics and questions around the sustainability and composition of growth. UBS's view that high single-digit aftermarket growth can persist sits alongside expectations for high-teens EPS compounding and a view that margin guidance may be conservative. At the same time, differing stances from BMO and Baird illustrate how brokers can interpret the same set of results differently when judging valuation and forward momentum.


Contextual analysis

TransDigm's financial profile is characterized by very strong gross margins and recent top-line growth, yet the company is navigating a period of more variable aftermarket performance. Analysts are parsing whether that variability is transitory or indicative of a new baseline for growth. The firm's ongoing acquisition activity and significant market capitalization are factors that support the argument that it can pursue bolt-on deals despite a high P/E multiple.

Investors and market participants should note that broker views diverge on whether current results and strategic actions justify higher targets or more cautious positioning. That dispersion is reflected in targets ranging from $1,400 to $1,900 among the cited analysts and research services.

Risks

  • Aftermarket growth has recently decelerated and become lumpier, introducing uncertainty into TransDigm's normalized growth rate - impacts aerospace aftermarket and component suppliers.
  • OEM volumes are growing faster than aftermarket business, a trend identified by Baird that could pressure margins and shift revenue composition - impacts aerospace manufacturing and parts suppliers.
  • Valuation sensitivity due to a high P/E ratio of 40.57 could amplify share price volatility if growth or margin expectations are revised - impacts equity investors and market sentiment toward aerospace suppliers.

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