UBS raised its price target on Tapestry Inc. (NYSE: TPR) to $125.00 from $123.00 on Thursday while maintaining a Neutral rating on the shares. The stock is trading around $126.90 and has returned 72.11% over the trailing 12 months, with InvestingPro data indicating it currently trades above its Fair Value estimate.
The bank pointed to continued strength at Tapestry’s Coach brand through the second quarter and into the early part of the third quarter as a primary driver of its view. UBS expects Tapestry to deliver roughly a $0.10 earnings-per-share beat versus the Street consensus of $2.20 for the second quarter.
Supporting that outlook, InvestingPro data show eight analysts have recently lifted their earnings estimates for the upcoming period. Tapestry is due to report its next earnings in seven days, making investor expectations and near-term positioning particularly relevant.
UBS also models a modest upward revision to Tapestry’s fiscal 2026 EPS guidance, forecasting an increase of about $0.15 from the current guidance range of $5.45 to $5.60. At the same time, the firm cautioned that conversations with investors suggest the market already anticipates a similar move, signaling limited incremental surprise to the upside if management confirms a higher guide.
That caution is tied to a specific concern: UBS said investors may be expecting more third-quarter sales guidance upside than management is likely to provide. The firm noted management has a pattern of issuing guidance that can be outpaced by actual results, and investors have now experienced two consecutive quarters in which guidance fell short of market expectations.
Market expectations for trading volatility around the upcoming report are elevated by options pricing. The options market is implying an 8.2% move in either direction following the earnings release, versus a historical average post-earnings move of 6.6%. UBS, however, expects the realized volatility to be lower than what the options market is currently pricing.
In related company results, Tapestry posted strong first-quarter fiscal 2026 performance that beat analysts' forecasts. The firm reported earnings per share of $1.38 versus a consensus of $1.26, and revenue of $1.7 billion compared with the expected $1.64 billion. Despite those beats, the stock declined in pre-market trading for reasons the report did not attribute to the underlying top-line and profit beats.
Analysts across the sell side have adjusted their price targets and views following these results and brand performance. Bernstein raised its target to $115, pointing to Coach’s 21% growth in the first quarter as a key factor. CFRA lifted its target to $110 and highlighted Tapestry’s emphasis on core brands and capital return programs. TD Cowen reiterated a Buy rating with a $120 price target, underscoring opportunities in marketing and geographic expansion.
Taken together, these analyst moves reflect a broadly favorable view of Tapestry’s strategic positioning and brand momentum, even as market pricing and investor expectations temper the potential for additional near-term upside. The interplay between management guidance, market anticipation, and options-implied volatility leaves a narrow window for positive surprise in the immediate reporting cycle.
Context for investors
- Coach-brand strength is cited as the primary driver behind analyst optimism.
- EPS and revenue beats in the most recent fiscal quarter have been followed by mixed market reactions.
- Options markets imply elevated post-earnings moves, although UBS expects realized volatility to be lower.