Analyst Ratings January 28, 2026

UBS Lifts Seagate Price Target to $385 but Keeps Neutral Call

Analyst praises execution, margins and HAMR progress while flagging valuation concerns

By Leila Farooq STX
UBS Lifts Seagate Price Target to $385 but Keeps Neutral Call
STX

UBS raised its target on Seagate Technology to $385 from $335 while retaining a Neutral rating, citing strong execution, expanding gross margins and progress on HAMR technology. The firm also increased EPS forecasts for fiscal 2026-2028 but warned that the stock may be pricing in a prolonged uptrend. Seagate recently posted better-than-expected fiscal Q2 2026 results and multiple peers have raised price targets.

Key Points

  • UBS raised Seagate’s price target to $385 from $335 while keeping a Neutral rating, with the new target close to the 52-week high.
  • Seagate delivered 31.56% revenue growth and a 37% gross profit margin over the past 12 months; UBS increased EPS estimates by 13-22% for fiscal 2026-2028.
  • Seagate beat fiscal Q2 2026 estimates (EPS $3.11 vs $2.79; revenue $2.83B vs $2.73B) and multiple firms including Mizuho, BofA, Morgan Stanley and Evercore ISI raised price targets.

UBS has increased its 12-month price objective for Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX) to $385 from $335, while keeping a Neutral rating on the shares. The new target sits near Seagate’s 52-week high of $383.88; the stock was trading at $371.76 at the time of the update.


Analyst rationale and financial performance

UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri pointed to Seagate’s execution and rising gross margins as central reasons for the target adjustment. Over the last twelve months Seagate delivered 31.56% revenue growth and posted a 37% gross profit margin, metrics the firm said underscore improving profitability against a backdrop of robust demand.

The analyst also endorsed Seagate’s order approach, noting the company is accepting orders only within current lead times - roughly 52 weeks - a practice Arcuri described as an "eat as you go" strategy. He suggested this is preferable to building up a large backlog of orders that might never be fulfilled.


Technology milestones

UBS highlighted progress on Seagate’s HAMR - Heat-Assisted Magnetic Recording - technology. According to the note, HAMR has been qualified by all major U.S. hyperscalers, and higher-density HAMR drives are expected to be rolled out in the near term. The firm views these advances as supportive of long-term product competitiveness and capacity scaling.


Earnings revisions and valuation

Even as UBS increased its earnings-per-share estimates by 13-22% across fiscal years 2026 through 2028, it held to a Neutral stance. The firm flagged valuation as a constraint, observing that the shares appear to be discounting a sustained continuation of the current uptrend. UBS noted the stock’s price-to-earnings ratio of 48.42 is well above Fair Value, referencing InvestingPro data that also shows seven analysts recently raising earnings estimates for the coming period.


Recent operating results and peer reactions

Seagate reported fiscal second-quarter 2026 results that beat expectations. The company posted earnings per share of $3.11 versus analyst forecasts of $2.79, and revenue of $2.83 billion compared with expected revenue of $2.73 billion. For the March quarter, Seagate guided to revenue of $2.90 billion and earnings per share of $3.40.

Following these results, a number of brokerages raised their targets for Seagate. Mizuho lifted its target to $440, BofA Securities set a $450 target, Morgan Stanley raised its target to $468, and Evercore ISI adjusted its target to $450. These revisions reflect the company’s improvements in revenue growth, gross margins and operating margins, with demand in the data center market and higher exabyte shipments flagged as key contributors.


Outlook and context

UBS’s move to raise the price target while maintaining a Neutral rating captures a balance between acknowledging operational momentum and caution over the stock’s current valuation. Investors and market participants will likely watch upcoming results and demand trends in the data center segment closely, given their material influence on Seagate’s near-term performance.

Risks

  • Stretched valuation - UBS notes the stock’s P/E of 48.42 trades significantly above Fair Value, suggesting downside risk if the current uptrend does not persist (impacts equity investors and technology sector valuations).
  • Order fulfillment/backlog dynamics - UBS favors Seagate’s policy of taking orders within current lead times to avoid building a backlog that may never ship (impacts supply-chain and manufacturing execution in storage hardware).
  • Reliance on data center demand and exabyte shipment growth - Seagate’s recent revenue gains are tied to data center market demand and higher exabyte shipments, exposing results to potential shifts in that end market (impacts cloud providers and enterprise storage markets).

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