Truist Securities left its Buy rating in place for Etsy (NASDAQ:ETSY) and sustained an $80.00 price target as the company readies fourth-quarter 2025 financial results. The research house expects the upcoming quarter to generally meet consensus forecasts, with improvements both year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter in Gross Merchandise Sales (GMS) and revenue growth, even though active buyer counts are expected to be flat.
The firm pointed to a number of internal initiatives it says are gaining traction, including work on product quality and improvements in marketing efficiency. Truist also highlighted the continuing expansion of Etsy’s Depop subsidiary as a positive contributor to the company’s growth profile.
Looking beyond Q4, Truist described the comparative year-over-year dynamics as easing sequentially in January and February of 2026 before becoming more challenging in March, a pattern the firm characterized as creating a "positive set up" for the first quarter of 2026.
Truist noted that macroeconomic conditions and tariff developments remain fluid, but it views Etsy’s exposure to those external factors as manageable. The research house added that the company is positioning itself to become a beneficiary of Agentic Commerce.
Recent corporate actions were also emphasized. Etsy announced a $750 million share repurchase authorization, which supplements an existing $200 million capacity and brings the total potential for future buybacks to nearly $1 billion. In addition, the board named Fred Wilson as Lead Independent Director effective January 1, 2026, as part of an ongoing leadership transition.
Truist’s note referenced Etsy’s most recent reported quarter, where the company exceeded analyst expectations on key metrics. Third-quarter results outperformed prior estimates, with GMS and EBITDA beating by 2% and 5%, respectively. Within the results, core marketplace GMS declined 2% year-over-year, an improvement from a 5% decline in the prior quarter. Meanwhile, Depop delivered strong growth, increasing GMS by 39%.
On the analyst landscape, BNP Paribas Exane initiated coverage of Etsy with a Neutral rating and a $60 price target. Cantor Fitzgerald maintained a Neutral rating with a $64 price target following the company’s third-quarter performance. Needham raised its price target to $76 and kept a Buy rating, citing Etsy’s recent partnership with OpenAI as a constructive development.
Summary
Truist retains Buy on Etsy with an $80.00 target ahead of Q4 2025 results, expecting GMS and revenue improvements despite flat active buyers. Company-level catalysts include a nearly $1 billion total buyback capacity and leadership changes, while Depop continues to be a notable growth engine.
Key points
- Truist Securities reaffirmed a Buy rating and an $80.00 price target, expecting Q4 2025 to align with consensus on improved GMS and revenue growth.
- Corporate moves include a $750 million share repurchase authorization added to $200 million in existing capacity, and the appointment of Fred Wilson as Lead Independent Director effective January 1, 2026.
- Recent operating results: Q3 GMS and EBITDA beat estimates by 2% and 5%; core marketplace GMS down 2% year-over-year (better than the prior quarter’s 5% decline); Depop up 39%.
Risks and uncertainties
- Macroeconomic variability could affect marketplace demand and revenue, a risk the firm says remains fluid - impacting e-commerce and retail segments.
- Tariff developments present an ongoing uncertainty for cross-border commerce and merchandising costs, which could influence margins and operations in online marketplaces.
- Comparative year-over-year easing in January and February 2026 turns more difficult in March, creating variability in near-term growth comparisons that could affect quarterly performance reporting.
Truist’s stance reflects confidence in Etsy’s operational levers and the growth trajectory at Depop, while acknowledging external variables that could influence outcomes. Analyst activity around the name is mixed, with several firms adopting Neutral ratings at various price targets, and other firms maintaining Buy ratings with differing upside assumptions.