Truist Securities has increased its 12-month price target for HCA Healthcare Inc (NYSE:HCA) to $546.00, up from $520.00, while maintaining its Buy rating on the stock. The updated target sits above HCA’s most recent share price of $505.84, with the company trading close to a 52-week high of $527.55.
The firm said the change follows what it described as "solid 4Q results," and reflected HCA’s initial guidance for fiscal 2026, which Truist noted is generally in line with analyst and consensus expectations across the board. At the midpoint of HCA’s guidance, adjusted EBITDA modestly exceeded consensus, a point highlighted by Truist in its rationale.
HCA’s current adjusted EBITDA is $15.49 billion, which the report linked to the company’s market capitalization of $115.43 billion. The 2026 guidance incorporates an expected adjusted EBITDA headwind from HIX in the range of $600 million to $900 million, partly mitigated by roughly $400 million of benefit from resiliency initiatives. Management is forecasting volume growth to remain in the 2% to 3% range while projecting continued margin strength.
Recent operating results provide context for those targets: HCA reported revenue growth of 7.08% and a gross profit margin of 41.5% during the latest reporting period. The company’s fourth quarter for 2025 produced earnings per share of $8.01, beating analyst estimates of $7.45, although revenue came in slightly below forecasts at $19.51 billion versus an expected $19.67 billion.
Truist emphasized HCA’s strong cash generation and an active pipeline of capital expenditure projects, signaling ongoing investment in the company’s platform and capabilities. The healthcare provider is noted to deliver a 7% free cash flow yield, giving it what Truist described as substantial financial flexibility to fund initiatives.
Supporting the bullish stance, HCA has raised its dividend and unveiled an additional $10 billion share repurchase program. InvestingPro data referenced in the analysis notes that HCA has increased its dividend for five consecutive years and that management has been an aggressive buyer of shares. The stock’s one-year return of 55.05% was cited as evidence of investor confidence in the company’s strategy and results.
Market participants have adjusted their views following HCA’s quarterly disclosure. Goldman Sachs raised its price objective to $558 while keeping a Buy rating, pointing to the company’s EBITDA performance and guidance. Bank of America Securities raised its target to $540 from $485 but maintained a Neutral rating, flagging the potential effects of Supplemental Directed Payment programs in Florida as a point of consideration.
Analyst targets for HCA vary: InvestingPro data shows a range from $368 to $590, reflecting differing assessments among sell-side analysts. Truist’s upgraded target is positioned within that band and reflects the firm’s interpretation of HCA’s earnings quality, guidance, and capital deployment plans.
Summary
Truist increased its HCA Healthcare price target to $546 and upheld a Buy rating after strong fourth-quarter results and fiscal 2026 guidance that modestly exceeded consensus on adjusted EBITDA at the midpoint. HCA’s solid cash flow, dividend growth, and a new $10 billion share buyback program support the bullish view, even as the company narrowly missed revenue expectations in the quarter.
Key points
- Truist lifted its HCA price target to $546 from $520 and kept a Buy rating; the stock was trading around $505.84 and near a 52-week high of $527.55.
- HCA’s adjusted EBITDA is $15.49 billion and market capitalization is $115.43 billion; fiscal 2026 guidance includes a $600 million to $900 million HIX impact partially offset by about $400 million from resiliency actions.
- HCA delivered EPS of $8.01 in Q4 2025 versus $7.45 expected, with revenue of $19.51 billion slightly below the $19.67 billion forecast; the company reaffirmed volume growth of 2% to 3% for 2026.
Risks and uncertainties
- HIX-related EBITDA headwinds of $600 million to $900 million could materially affect margins - a factor relevant to investors focused on healthcare provider profitability.
- Revenue fell slightly short of expectations in Q4 2025, indicating execution or demand variability that could affect near-term performance in the healthcare and hospital services sectors.
- Regulatory or programmatic shifts such as Supplemental Directed Payment programs in Florida, noted by BofA, present policy-related risk to state-level reimbursement dynamics that could influence revenue and margins.
For readers seeking more detailed forecasts and model-driven valuation, InvestingPro notes analyst target dispersion from $368 to $590 and suggests additional research resources are available.