Analyst Ratings January 28, 2026

Truist Cuts CommVault Price Target After Mixed Q3; Buy Rating Stays

Analyst reduces target to $155 as company posts solid revenue and margins but misses NNARR mark

By Caleb Monroe CVLT
Truist Cuts CommVault Price Target After Mixed Q3; Buy Rating Stays
CVLT

Truist Securities reduced its price objective for CommVault Systems to $155 from $175 while keeping a Buy rating after the vendor reported mixed fiscal third-quarter 2026 results marked by strong revenue and margins but a shortfall in net new annualized recurring revenue (NNARR). The stock has plunged in recent trading, and analysts delivered varying target adjustments amid the split performance.

Key Points

  • Truist lowered its price target on CommVault to $155 from $175 but retained a Buy rating, reflecting mixed judgment on near-term recurring revenue versus revenue and margin strength.
  • CommVault beat consensus on revenue and margins (gross margin 81.44%) and reported EPS of $1.17, yet NNARR missed implied guidance at $39 million, prompting analyst reactions.
  • The developments affect enterprise software and data storage sectors, with implications for SaaS revenue mix and recurring-revenue visibility.

Summary

Truist Securities lowered its price target on CommVault Systems (CVLT) to $155.00 from $175.00 on Wednesday, while retaining a Buy rating after the company posted mixed results for its third quarter of fiscal 2026. The vendor reported stronger-than-expected revenue and margin metrics but missed on Net New Annualized Recurring Revenue (NNARR), which registered at $39 million versus implied guidance of $40-45 million. Shares have slid sharply over the last week and are trading close to their 52-week low.


Q3 performance and market reaction

CommVault, a provider of data storage and information management software, reported revenue and margins that topped consensus expectations. Management highlighted gross profit margins of 81.44% and reported revenue growth of 21.52% over the trailing twelve months. Despite those strengths, the company posted NNARR of $39 million, missing the implied guidance range of $40-45 million.

The market reaction has been pronounced: the stock declined 25.44% over the past week and was trading at $89.13, a level just above its 52-week low of $84.44. Analysis from InvestingPro cited in company coverage indicates CommVault appears undervalued at current prices.


Analyst commentary and drivers of the shortfall

Truist attributed the NNARR shortfall chiefly to a higher proportion of Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) bookings in the quarter, longer durations on some term license agreements and an uptick in migrations. Those items, the firm said, affected the timing and composition of recurring revenue additions even as other metrics held up.

Operationally, CommVault reported a record quarter for net new term license logos and achieved its second-highest quarter for acquiring SaaS customers. Management has nudged up its guidance for overall revenue and for operating margins while trimming its Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) outlook slightly to 18% year-over-year growth, down from a prior 18-19% range.


Additional analyst moves and financials

CommVault’s Q3 fiscal 2026 financials also exceeded forecasts: diluted earnings per share rose 19.39% to $1.17 versus an expected $0.98, and revenue came in at $314 million compared with the $299.05 million consensus. In response to the $39 million total net new ARR figure, Mizuho reduced its price target for the company to $140.00 from $180.00 but kept an Outperform rating.

The juxtaposition of stronger-than-expected EPS and revenue against the ARR shortfall has produced a mixed market reaction, with positive operational and profitability indicators tempered by concerns over recurring revenue momentum.


Key context

  • Company: CommVault Systems (CVLT) - data storage and information management software.
  • Analyst moves: Truist cut price target to $155 from $175 and kept Buy; Mizuho cut its target to $140 and kept Outperform.
  • Financial highlights: EPS $1.17 vs. $0.98 expected; revenue $314M vs. $299.05M expected; NNARR $39M vs. guidance $40-45M.

Risks

  • NNARR shortfall relative to implied guidance creates uncertainty around the timing and strength of recurring revenue growth, impacting revenue visibility for enterprise software and SaaS markets.
  • A higher mix of SaaS bookings, longer-duration term license deals and increased migrations can alter revenue recognition timing and ARR trajectory, introducing volatility to ARR and NNARR metrics.
  • Analyst target reductions (Truist and Mizuho) and recent sharp share-price decline highlight market sensitivity and potential downside risk if recurring revenue trends weaken further.

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