Truist Securities has trimmed its price target for Brown & Brown (NYSE: BRO) to $100.00 from $105.00, while retaining a Buy rating on the insurance brokerage. The broker's reduced target follows adjustments to its near-term earnings outlook and considerations around share count.
In its updated forecasts, Truist lowered its 2026 earnings per share estimate to $4.55 from $4.75. Analysts attributed the cut to expectations of reduced organic growth and modest topline headwinds tied to personnel losses at Howden. Despite these downgrades, the broader analyst consensus still points to profitability, with a consensus EPS forecast of $3.89 for 2026.
Truist also called out higher shares outstanding as a factor influencing its revised outlook. For 2027, the firm established an EPS forecast of $5.05 per share for Brown & Brown.
The newly set price target rests on a target multiple of 15 times Truist's 2027 EBITDA estimate of $2.76 billion. Truist notes that this multiple places Brown & Brown slightly ahead of the group average on this year’s EBITDA, while still just under the company's eight-year EBITDA multiple norm of 15.5 times, according to the firm's analysis.
Brown & Brown's most recent quarterly results painted a mixed picture. For the fourth quarter of 2025, the company reported earnings per share of $0.93, outpacing analyst expectations of $0.91 and yielding a 2.2% positive surprise. On the revenue side, however, the company posted $1.6 billion versus the $1.65 billion that had been anticipated, falling short of estimates.
Those results highlight a divergence between profit performance and top-line generation: Brown & Brown managed to beat EPS expectations while missing on revenue, underscoring some ongoing concerns about growth despite the company’s ability to deliver slightly stronger-than-expected quarterly earnings.
Investors and market participants will weigh Truist's valuation approach - a 15 times multiple on projected 2027 EBITDA - against the firm's reference points, including the stated eight-year norm of 15.5 times. For now, Truist's rating remains constructive even as its model incorporates slower organic growth, Howden-related headwinds, and a larger share base into the forecast framework.