Texas Capital Securities downgraded Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc. (NYSE: AMR) from Buy to Hold and simultaneously raised its 12-month price target to $210.00 from $185.00, the research note showed on Thursday. At the time of the update the shares were trading at $219.19, and the company’s market capitalization stood at $2.79 billion.
The firm explained that, despite the higher price target, the new valuation implies limited upside from current market levels, prompting the change to a Hold recommendation. That view sits alongside a separate Fair Value assessment from InvestingPro that suggests the stock may still be trading below its fair value.
In its financial modeling, Texas Capital reduced its adjusted EBITDA estimate for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025 to $36.9 million from a prior $41.0 million projection. For the full fiscal year 2026, the firm cut its adjusted EBITDA forecast to $307.0 million from $337.3 million. The analyst attributed much of the downward revision to a softer price deck for HVA and HVB grade metallurgical coal products.
Those headwinds were partially mitigated in the firm’s analysis by a combination of lower cost of sales, stronger shipment volumes and domestic contracted pricing that outperformed expectations. Texas Capital said these factors improved operating margins in the terminal year of its forecast, offsetting some of the revenue-side pressure.
Alpha Metallurgical’s own recently released third-quarter 2025 financials paint a challenging picture. The company posted a loss per share of -$0.3157, which missed the consensus estimate of -$0.2525. Quarterly revenue totaled $526.78 million versus expectations of $550.75 million.
Looking ahead, Alpha issued operational guidance for 2026 calling for metallurgical coal shipments in the range of 14.4 million to 15.4 million tons. The company also expects incidental thermal coal shipments of between 0.7 million and 1.1 million tons, producing total projected shipments for 2026 of 15.1 million to 16.5 million tons.
Separately, Alpha confirmed a fatal incident at its Rolling Thunder Mine in West Virginia. The company reported that section foreman Steven Lipscomb died during a sudden flooding event. According to the company, Lipscomb was last seen ensuring his crew’s safe evacuation; all other miners in the area escaped.
Taken together, the rating change, revised forecasts, disappointing quarterly results and the tragic mining incident underscore a difficult period for Alpha Metallurgical Resources as it navigates commodity pricing and operational challenges.