Telsey Advisory Group has lowered its price target on Tractor Supply Company to $63.00 from $70.00 while maintaining an Outperform rating on the stock. The revised target implies roughly 24% upside from the stock's quoted level of $50.96, though available valuation data indicates the shares may be trading above their Fair Value.
The reduction in the price objective stems from weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 sales, even as Telsey noted the retailer continued to expand share in its core farm and ranch business. Telsey based its new target on applying a price-to-earnings multiple of approximately 29x to a revised 2026 earnings per share estimate of $2.19, down from its prior estimate of $2.36.
Tractor Supply's own guidance for 2026 calls for comparable store sales growth of 1% to 3% and earnings per share growth of 3% to 8%. The company also reiterated that it expects to realize expense leverage when comparable sales growth reaches 2% or higher.
Looking past 2026, Tractor Supply reiterated its longer-term financial objectives: return to comparable store sales growth of 3% to 5%, annual operating margin expansion in the range of 5 to 20 basis points per year, and annual earnings per share growth of 8% to 11%.
Recent quarterly results highlighted the near-term headwinds. For the fourth quarter of 2025 the company reported earnings per share of $0.43, below the analyst consensus of $0.47. Revenue for the period was $3.9 billion versus expected revenue of $4.02 billion. Comparable store sales increased by only 0.3% during the quarter.
Management and analysts pointed to several factors that weighed on performance: softer discretionary consumer demand, an absence of storm-related sales that had benefited prior periods, and elevated holiday promotional activity that compressed results for the quarter.
Following the release of the quarter's results, another sell-side firm also trimmed its target on the shares. Evercore ISI reduced its price objective from $65.00 to $60.00 while continuing to carry an Outperform rating, reflecting similar concerns about the near-term topline and margin pressure.
Investors and market participants will be watching the 2026 operating cadence closely to see whether Tractor Supply achieves the expense leverage it has tied to comparable sales and how quickly comp trends normalize following the promotional environment and storm-related variability described in the quarter. Until new data confirms improved top-line momentum and margin expansion, analysts appear to be modeling more conservative earnings power for the near term while keeping faith in the company's longer-term targets.