TD Cowen's recent survey of the solar industry indicates that the U.S. residential solar market finished the fourth quarter of 2025 stronger than many had anticipated and that expectations for 2026 are broadly constructive.
The survey flags several dynamics that could influence company-level performance. Respondents cited a demand recovery that is being lifted in part by a migration to prepaid lease structures following the removal of the 25D tax credit. That change in customer-financing preference appears to be supporting uptake of residential systems even as federal tax incentives were adjusted.
Storage is another area with notable momentum. Survey participants reported a median expected residential solar storage attachment rate of 60% for 2026. TD Cowen framed that projection as supportive of Sunrun's strategy, which prioritizes storage, and noted that the 100% energy storage tax credit in place through 2033 reinforces the economics of integrating batteries into residential installations.
On the inverter front, survey respondents said Tesla is continuing to grow its foothold in the residential inverter segment. At the same time, TD Cowen expressed encouragement about SolarEdge's progress in the commercial market, where the firm identified SolarEdge as the only scaled provider that couples domestic content offerings with FEOC compliance for U.S. commercial customers. TD Cowen described that position as giving SolarEdge an opportunity for continued commercial market share gains.
The survey results point to constructive implications for a group of industry participants. TD Cowen called out Enphase, SolarEdge and Sunrun as firms that could benefit from the demand improvement and structural trends identified by respondents. For Enphase specifically, the note highlights a set of recent company developments and shifting analyst views.
Enphase has started U.S. production of its IQ9N-3P Commercial Microinverter, the first of its microinverters to employ gallium nitride technology, the survey commentary noted. On the analyst front, Jefferies raised its price target on Enphase to $37 and projected the company could exceed fourth-quarter EBITDA estimates by about 7%, attributing much of the upside to its storage hardware business. Goldman Sachs upgraded Enphase from Neutral to Buy and set a $45 price target, describing the move as reflecting a constructive growth outlook despite prior expectations for a revenue trough in the first quarter of 2026. KeyBanc also moved Enphase from Underweight to Sector Weight, pointing to limited further downside following a period of significant underperformance.
Outside of Enphase, the survey summary also referenced a coverage action on First Solar. Raymond James initiated coverage on First Solar with a Market Perform rating, saying the stock offers a relatively compelling risk/reward profile while cautioning against the broadly bullish consensus.
Taken together, the survey suggests an improving setup in the U.S. residential solar market driven by financing shifts, growing storage penetration and differentiated vendor positioning in both residential and commercial channels. The commentary underscores that policy incentives such as the 100% energy storage tax credit through 2033 continue to matter materially for product economics and vendor strategies.
While the survey frames these developments as constructive for several named companies, TD Cowen's note and the analysts referenced in the coverage changes reflect a range of views on near-term revenue and earnings trajectories. The industry appears to be in a stage where incentive structures, product mix and channel competition are collectively shaping outcomes for installers, inverter vendors and storage providers.