Analyst Ratings January 30, 2026

TD Cowen Sticks With Buy on Visa After Fiscal Q1 Beat, Cites Durable Fundamentals

Analyst maintains $416 price objective as Visa posts stronger-than-expected quarterly results and reaffirms full-year guidance

By Priya Menon V
TD Cowen Sticks With Buy on Visa After Fiscal Q1 Beat, Cites Durable Fundamentals
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TD Cowen has reiterated a Buy rating on Visa Inc. and set a $416.00 price target following the company's first-quarter fiscal 2026 results. The target implies roughly 28% upside from Visa's prevailing share price of $324.39. The research firm highlighted solid results across Value-Added Services and commercial segments, resilient consumer trends and robust margins, while noting some drag from lower foreign exchange volume.

Key Points

  • TD Cowen reaffirmed a Buy rating on Visa and kept a $416.00 price target, implying about 28% upside from $324.39.
  • Visa delivered a strong fiscal Q1 with outperformance in Value-Added Services and Commercial and Money Services, while foreign exchange volume was lower.
  • Company fundamentals cited include a 97.8% gross profit margin, 11.3% trailing twelve-month revenue growth, a projected EPS of $12.84 for fiscal 2026, and a 53% return on equity; Visa also has 18 consecutive years of dividend increases.

TD Cowen has reaffirmed a Buy recommendation on Visa Inc., keeping its price target at $416.00 after the card network reported first-quarter results for fiscal 2026. At Visa's last quoted price of $324.39, the target represents an approximate 28% potential upside from current levels.

The research firm described the quarter as "strong," pointing to a stable consumer backdrop and outperformance in Visa's Value-Added Services (VAS) and Commercial and Money Services (CMS) lines. Those gains were partly offset, TD Cowen noted, by lower foreign exchange volume which weighed on certain revenue components.

Visa's underlying profitability remains healthy. The company reported a gross profit margin of 97.8% and revenue growth of 11.3% over the trailing twelve months. Despite the quarter's upside, Visa kept its fiscal 2026 guidance intact, with management acknowledging some cadence shifts as it prepares for upcoming global sporting events that can affect transaction timing and mix.

Analyst projections for the full fiscal year include an expected earnings per share of $12.84 and revenue growth of about 11% for fiscal 2026. TD Cowen suggested that the reaffirmation of full-year guidance after a quarterly beat, along with the pattern of operating expense timing and the FX volume dynamics, may explain the modest weakness seen in after-hours trading following the announcement.

Operationally and financially, Visa presented results that the research firm interprets as ongoing momentum in the business and a potential buying opportunity for investors given the stock's muted immediate market reaction. Key financial metrics highlighted include a 53% return on equity and a company track record of 18 consecutive years of dividend increases.

In its reported results for the first quarter of fiscal 2026, Visa posted adjusted earnings per share of $3.17, versus a consensus of $3.14. Revenue for the quarter came in at $10.9 billion, exceeding an expected $10.68 billion. These outcomes underline the company's ability to surpass market expectations while preserving its guidance for the year ahead.

TD Cowen's maintained Buy rating and $416.00 target reflect the firm's view that Visa's core fundamentals and segment performance justify an overweight stance, even as investors monitor cadence and FX-related headwinds.


Note on coverage: The article summarizes analyst commentary and company-reported results. It does not attempt to provide investment advice and reflects the information available from the company's reported quarter and analyst estimates.

Risks

  • Lower foreign exchange volume - can weigh on revenue and is a cyclical factor affecting payment processors and financial services companies.
  • Operating expense cadence - timing and concentration of costs could moderate near-term margins and affect investor reaction, impacting financials in the financial services sector.
  • Cadence shifts related to major global sporting events - timing and mix changes around such events can introduce variability in transaction volumes, influencing payments revenue and merchant-related services.

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