Overview
TD Cowen on Monday increased its price target for Church & Dwight Co. Inc. (NYSE:CHD) to $99.00 from $97.00 but retained a Hold rating on the consumer products company. The move followed Church & Dwight’s fourth-quarter results and management guidance for 2026, which together prompted the firm to adjust its forward projections while maintaining a neutral stance on the shares.
Quarterly performance
For the fourth quarter, Church & Dwight reported earnings per share of $0.86, modestly outpacing the consensus estimate of $0.84. Revenue for the period came in at $1.64 billion, in line with expectations. The company also disclosed organic growth of 1.8% when excluding vitamins, a figure that matched analyst forecasts.
Over the most recent twelve months, the company has exhibited modest top-line expansion, with revenue growth of 1.57%. The shares trade at a price-to-earnings ratio of 31.87 based on the stated valuation metric.
Guidance and management commentary
Church & Dwight’s management provided guidance for fiscal 2026, forecasting organic growth to accelerate to a 3-4% range and projecting earnings per share between $3.71 and $3.81. Management attributed the outlook to several factors: exiting weaker portions of the business, distribution gains for emerging brands, and accelerating momentum in its Arm & Hammer product line.
Analyst reactions
Following the earnings release, TD Cowen analyst Robert Moskow revised the firm’s 2026 assumptions for Church & Dwight. TD Cowen raised its organic growth projection for 2026 to 3.2% and updated its earnings per share estimate to $3.76. Those adjustments underlie the small increase in the firm’s price target, even as the analyst team kept a Hold rating.
Separately, JPMorgan moved Church & Dwight’s rating from Underweight to Neutral and increased its price target to $100.00 from $92.00. JPMorgan cited portfolio reshaping actions - including divestitures, discontinued brands, and acquisitions - as factors that could position the company for faster growth, though it stopped short of signaling achievement of long-term targets.
Implications
The quarter’s slight EPS beat, matched organic growth excluding vitamins, and the management outlook combine to form a cautious but constructive near-term picture. Market participants and industry observers should note the emphasis on portfolio optimization and distribution expansion as key levers for improving top-line momentum.
Key points
- TD Cowen raised its price target on CHD to $99 from $97 and kept a Hold rating.
- Church & Dwight reported Q4 EPS of $0.86 versus a $0.84 consensus and revenue of $1.64 billion in line with expectations.
- Management forecasts 2026 organic growth of 3-4% and EPS of $3.71-$3.81; TD Cowen now models 3.2% organic growth and $3.76 EPS for 2026.
Risks and uncertainties
- Modest recent revenue growth - The company has shown only 1.57% revenue growth over the last twelve months, which could constrain upside in consumer staples and retail sectors if the trend persists.
- Execution on portfolio changes - The outlook depends on successful divestitures, discontinuations, and acquisitions; failure to execute these moves as planned could slow growth in brand distribution and product lines.
- Dependence on brand momentum - Acceleration in the Arm & Hammer line and distribution gains for emerging brands are cited drivers, so underperformance in those areas would affect projected organic growth and margins.
Market participants should weigh the company’s incremental improvements and guidance against modest recent top-line growth and execution risk tied to portfolio reshaping.