TD Cowen has increased its price target on ASML Holding NV to EUR1,500, up from EUR1,000, while retaining a Buy rating. The move comes as ASML reported notably strong quarterly performance and booking activity, prompting the research firm to raise expectations for the company that supplies lithography equipment to semiconductor manufacturers.
Shares of ASML were trading at $1,427.41 at the time of the note, sitting roughly 1% below a 52-week high of $1,473.59. Over the past 12 months the stock has returned approximately 114.59%.
TD Cowen pointed to a combination of solid results, robust bookings and upbeat guidance as the rationale for the sizable price-target revision. The firm highlighted ASML's material top-line momentum, noting revenue growth of 22.77% over the last twelve months and a five-year compound annual growth rate of 19%.
Capacity dynamics were a focal point in TD Cowen's analysis. The firm outlined ASML's calendar-year 2026 outlook as ranging from +4% to +19%, a span tied to factors including immersion capacity and customers' logistical ability to receive equipment. Management, according to the research note, does not view ASML as the limiting factor for customers' capacity expansions this year.
On modeling assumptions, TD Cowen expects 12% revenue growth for ASML this year, with sales of EUV - extreme ultraviolet - lithography systems rising 29% year-over-year. Looking further ahead, the firm projects 9% revenue growth for 2027 and an 18% increase in EUV sales for that year.
ASML, headquartered in the Netherlands, remains the dominant supplier of the advanced lithography machines that are necessary to produce cutting-edge semiconductor chips used across applications such as artificial intelligence, data centers and mobile devices. The company carries a market capitalization of $561.22 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of 49.33. According to InvestingPro assessments cited in the public reporting, ASML appears overvalued relative to its InvestingPro Fair Value, and the company has sustained dividend payments for 19 consecutive years.
The company's most recent quarterly report showed net revenue of 9.7 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, a 5% increase year-over-year and a 29% rise quarter-over-quarter, modestly above consensus estimates. Order intake reached a record 13.1 billion, a 144% increase from the prior quarter, with EUV orders accounting for 7.4 billion of that total.
Analyst responses to ASML's results were broadly favorable. Evercore ISI and Wolfe Research both kept positive ratings, highlighting the company's strong order performance and an encouraging 2026 outlook. BofA Securities reiterated a Buy rating and set a price target of EUR1,454 after the quarter. JPMorgan maintained an Overweight view, noting that ASML's orders exceeded both their forecasts and consensus expectations. These analyst positions underline continued confidence in ASML's financial position and growth trajectory.
Collectively, the updates from TD Cowen and other research firms followed the company's record orders, elevated revenue guidance at a 2026 midpoint of 36.5 billion, and a clear emphasis on EUV system demand as a driver of near-term growth. Still, the range in the CY26 outlook and factors linked to customer receipt of kit introduce variability that investors and market participants will continue to monitor.