Analyst Ratings February 3, 2026

TD Cowen Holds on DaVita, Sets $133 Target After Strong Q4 Results

Analyst flags volume recovery as potential catalyst even as price target trails the current market level

By Derek Hwang DVA
TD Cowen Holds on DaVita, Sets $133 Target After Strong Q4 Results
DVA

TD Cowen has maintained a Hold rating on DaVita with a price target of $133 following the company's fourth-quarter results. DaVita beat revenue and adjusted EBIT estimates in Q4, benefitted from stronger-than-expected performance in its Integrated Kidney Care segment and set fiscal 2026 EBIT guidance slightly above consensus. A separate Fair Value assessment indicates the stock may be modestly undervalued, despite the analyst's price target sitting below the current share price.

Key Points

  • TD Cowen maintains a Hold rating on DaVita with a $133 price target, below the current share price of $138.87.
  • DaVita beat fourth-quarter 2025 revenue by 3.2% and adjusted EBIT by 3.4%; IKC outperformed TD Cowen estimates by about $55 million, including a positive 2024 true-up.
  • Fiscal 2026 EBIT guidance midpoint is approximately $18 million above consensus; management expects a route back to over 2% nonacquired volume growth.

TD Cowen has reiterated a Hold recommendation on DaVita, keeping its price objective at $133.00 after the company's fourth-quarter reporting. That target remains below DaVita's trading level of $138.87, although a Fair Value assessment suggests the shares could be slightly undervalued.

In the fourth quarter of 2025, DaVita topped consensus revenue estimates by 3.2% and exceeded adjusted EBIT expectations by 3.4%, according to TD Cowen analyst Ryan Langston. The firm also notes the company retains strong financial metrics, with a high free cash flow yield measured at 17% and an overall financial health rating described as "GREAT."

A prominent driver of the quarter's outperformance was the Integrated Kidney Care (IKC) segment, which outpaced TD Cowen's internal estimate by roughly $55 million. That variance included a positive 2024 true-up, which the analyst firm identified as a component of the IKC beat.

For fiscal year 2026, DaVita set an EBIT guidance midpoint that sits about 80 basis points, or roughly $18 million, above consensus expectations. Management continues to point to a path back to more than 2% growth in nonacquired volumes - a metric TD Cowen highlights as a key potential catalyst for the company.

DaVita's reported fourth-quarter earnings per share were $3.40, beating the analyst forecast of $3.24. Revenue for the quarter came in at $3.62 billion versus an expected $3.51 billion, representing a positive earnings surprise of 4.94% for the period. The company did not report any mergers or acquisitions in the quarter, and no changes to analyst recommendations were noted in the updates provided around the results.

TD Cowen's Hold rating reflects the balance between DaVita's recent operational beats, the favorable free cash flow profile, and a price target that remains below the current market price. Investors examining the name will likely weigh the company-level execution and volume dynamics against the valuation differential implied by the analyst target and the Fair Value assessment.


What this means for investors

  • DaVita delivered above-consensus revenue and adjusted EBIT in Q4 2025 and reported stronger-than-expected IKC results.
  • Fiscal 2026 EBIT guidance midpoint was set modestly above consensus, and management is focused on returning to over 2% nonacquired volume growth.
  • Despite operational strengths and a strong free cash flow yield, the analyst price target remains below the market price, while a Fair Value metric suggests slight undervaluation.

Risks

  • Price target sits below the current market price - potential short-term valuation mismatch impacting equity investors and healthcare sector allocations.
  • Reliance on returning to more than 2% growth in nonacquired volumes as a catalyst - uncertainty in volume recovery could affect revenue and margins for healthcare services.
  • IKC outperformance included a positive 2024 true-up, which may limit visibility on the sustainability of that segment's excess earnings in the near term.

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