TD Cowen lowered its price target on AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) to $32.00 from $33.00 while maintaining a Hold rating after reviewing the company’s fourth-quarter 2025 results, which contained both favorable and unfavorable elements.
The research firm flagged underperformance on phone subscriber additions as a notable shortcoming, saying that net additions in the holiday quarter came in below expectations. At the same time, AT&T outperformed on an EBITDA basis, suggesting that the company may have dialed back competitive intensity during the period as rivals pursued aggressive promotional activity.
TD Cowen characterized AT&T’s guidance for 2026 as "good 2026 guidance considering a competitive 2026," while also noting that the company’s free cash flow outlook effectively represented a downward revision relative to prior assumptions. The firm emphasized that the impact of that revision was offset in part by improvements in tax and pension-related items.
Alongside the near-term outlook, AT&T presented a forward-looking view to 2028 intended to illustrate upside potential from its convergence strategy. That presentation included anticipated benefits from the company’s acquisition of Lumen Technologies, which management offered as a source of longer-term upside.
TD Cowen analyst Gregory Williams commented directly on the strategic picture, saying AT&T’s "convergence narrative" is "stronger than ever" as the company positions itself for growth beyond the current competitive backdrop.
In concurrent reporting of results, AT&T posted fourth-quarter 2025 earnings that beat analyst expectations. The company reported adjusted earnings per share of $0.52, compared with the consensus forecast of $0.46. Revenue for the quarter came in at $33.5 billion versus the anticipated $32.87 billion, producing an earnings surprise of 13.04% on the EPS metric.
Separately, KeyBanc reiterated its Overweight rating on AT&T while maintaining a $30.00 price target. KeyBanc cited the company’s consistent strategy and growth potential as factors in its stance and projected that adjusted EBITDA growth would accelerate from 3.5% in 2026 to more than 5% in 2028. The firm suggested this trajectory would make it difficult for competitors to match AT&T’s offerings.
Taken together, the analyst reactions reflect a mixture of investor concerns and strategic confidence: near-term subscriber weakness and a revised free cash flow path offset by stronger-than-expected EBITDA, constructive guidance for 2026 in a competitive context, and a longer-term convergence narrative tied to the Lumen acquisition.
Contextual note - The commentary from TD Cowen and KeyBanc focuses attention on the telecom sector’s competitive dynamics and on the financial metrics that drive valuation: subscriber trends, EBITDA performance, and free cash flow assumptions. The companies and sectors likely to be most affected include telecommunications operators, network services providers, and entities involved in enterprise connectivity and integration.