Analyst Ratings February 2, 2026

Stifel trims Eagle Materials price target to $232 as housing softness weighs on wallboard results

Analyst holds to a Hold rating after mixed fiscal third-quarter results; cement and aggregates outperform while wallboard volumes and pricing slip

By Leila Farooq EXP
Stifel trims Eagle Materials price target to $232 as housing softness weighs on wallboard results
EXP

Stifel lowered its 12-month price target on Eagle Materials (EXP) to $232 from $245 but kept a Hold rating following the company's fiscal third-quarter 2026 report. The quarter delivered revenue above expectations while adjusted EBITDA fell short due to weaker wallboard performance, prompting analyst downgrades to near-term earnings estimates even as heavy materials volumes improved.

Key Points

  • Stifel reduced its 12-month price target for Eagle Materials to $232 from $245 and kept a Hold rating; shares fell about 8.08% over the past week and traded near $207.13.
  • Fiscal Q3 2026 results showed revenue slightly ahead of expectations but adjusted EBITDA missed due to weaker wallboard performance - wallboard volume down 14% and pricing down 5%.
  • Heavy materials outperformed: cement volumes rose 9% year-over-year and aggregates increased 34% organically; cement pricing was down about 1%, driven mainly by weakness in Texas.

Stifel has cut its price target for Eagle Materials to $232.00 from $245.00 and retained a Hold rating on the shares of the building-products and heavy-materials company. The move comes after a volatile week for the stock, which has declined 8.08% over the last five trading days and was trading around $207.13 at the time of the latest update. Valuation analysis indicates the shares appear slightly overvalued on a fair-value basis.

The analyst action follows Eagle Materials' fiscal third-quarter 2026 results. Management reported revenue that came in ahead of consensus, but adjusted EBITDA missed expectations, a shortfall the company attributed principally to weakness in its wallboard business. During the quarter wallboard volume fell 14% while wallboard pricing declined 5%, outcomes that missed analyst projections and contributed to lower-than-anticipated adjusted EBITDA.

Over the trailing twelve months the company recorded $731.61 million in EBITDA. Market analysts have reacted to the third-quarter shortfall: eight analysts have revised their earnings forecasts downward for the upcoming period.

Results were mixed across Eagle's segments. The heavy materials division showed noticeable strength - cement volume rose 9% year-over-year and aggregates posted a 34% organic increase. Cement pricing was roughly 1% lower in the quarter, with weakness centered in the Texas market while most other regions remained relatively firm.

Despite the quarterly EBITDA miss, Eagle Materials continues to demonstrate healthy profitability metrics, reporting a gross profit margin of 28.3% and trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.72.

Company commentary accompanying the results signaled that housing is likely to act as a near-term headwind, although management noted that stronger trends in infrastructure and private non-residential construction could partially offset housing weakness. Capital allocation plans remain in place: the company's modernization investments for cement and wallboard plants are proceeding on schedule, and available disclosures show management has been aggressively repurchasing shares.

Stifel indicated it will wait for clearer signs of a housing-market recovery before adopting a more bullish stance on the shares. The current analyst consensus recommendation sits at 2.82, with price targets among covering analysts ranging from $205 to $245.

Additional quarterly details underscore the mixed quarter for Eagle Materials. Reported earnings per share for the third quarter of fiscal 2026 were $3.22, below the consensus expectation of $3.49, representing a 7.74% shortfall. Revenue for the quarter was $556.0 million versus an expected $557.85 million, narrowly missing forecasts.

In other analyst moves, DA Davidson lowered its price target on Eagle Materials to $210 from $225 while maintaining a Neutral rating, citing ongoing challenges in wallboard demand and pricing dynamics as drivers of the adjustment.


Taken together, the latest quarter and subsequent analyst revisions paint a picture of a company navigating uneven end-market demand: stronger performance in heavy materials and continued margin resilience contrast with softness in wallboard volumes and pricing. Management's continued plant modernization and active share repurchase program signal ongoing investment in capacity and a degree of confidence in long-term prospects, even as near-term demand patterns remain uncertain.

Risks

  • Housing sector weakness presents a near-term headwind for demand in wallboard and related building products, affecting the housing and construction sectors.
  • Continued softness in wallboard volumes and pricing could pressure EBITDA and near-term earnings, impacting building materials suppliers and construction margins.
  • Regional pricing variability - such as the decline in cement pricing in Texas - creates uncertainty for revenue and margin outlooks in heavy materials markets.

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