Stifel has recently revised downward its price target for The Trade Desk, an advertising technology company listed on NASDAQ under the ticker TTD, from $90 to $74. Despite this reduction, the firm continues to endorse the stock with a Buy rating. Currently valued at approximately $36.26 per share, The Trade Desk's price has dropped nearly 70% over the past year, yet analysis by InvestingPro suggests the stock remains undervalued when compared to its Fair Value estimates.
The adjustment in price target arises from Stifel's anticipation of potentially "lackluster" guidance in the upcoming first quarter. This caution stems from challenging year-over-year comparisons, a result of a recent business reorganization that effectively shifted some revenue from the fourth quarter of 2024 into the first quarter of 2025. Such timing shifts could temporarily suppress growth metrics for the quarter.
Nonetheless, Stifel highlights The Trade Desk as one of its "top picks for the year," albeit recommending investors await the upcoming first-quarter earnings report before initiating new long positions. The next earnings release is expected on February 18, which is 26 days from now.
In evaluating the competitive landscape, Stifel asserts that the effects of competition from Amazon are already reflected in the stock’s current valuation. Looking further ahead, the firm forecasts revenue growth acceleration through 2026. This optimism is partially based on the expectation that The Trade Desk will move beyond the negative impacts on growth experienced in 2025 due to the U.S. political advertising cycle in 2024.
The Trade Desk is also anticipated to benefit in 2026 from several significant advertising events, including the Olympics, World Cup, and the U.S. Midterm elections. Stifel suggests that these tailwinds will make arguments about lost market share to Amazon less convincing, especially as headline revenue growth picks up pace.
Additional analyst opinions on The Trade Desk present a range of perspectives. For example, BofA Securities has downgraded its price target to $40 and holds an Underperform rating, aligning its expectations with the company’s guidance for revenue and adjusted EBITDA in the fourth quarter of 2025. Similarly, Citizens has lowered their rating from Market Outperform to Market Perform, pointing to rising competitive pressures within the digital advertising sector exacerbated by innovations like generative AI.
Conversely, Cannonball Research emphasizes positive momentum with the company’s OpenPath product, which represented about 10% of The Trade Desk's revenue in the third quarter of fiscal year 2025. Cannonball reiterates a Buy rating and sets a price target at $70. Meanwhile, MoffettNathanson, after noting a substantial share price decline, upgraded its rating from Sell to Neutral and set a price target of $39.
Stifel’s recent endorsement of The Trade Desk as its top pick within the Ad Tech sector underscores the company’s progress with its Kokai platform and its ability to navigate challenges related to the 2024 U.S. Presidential election cycle. These mixed analyst opinions reflect the evolving dynamics and varied outlooks in the digital advertising and technology marketplace.