Analyst Ratings January 23, 2026

Stifel Revises McCormick Price Target Downward Amid Elevated Costs

McCormick & Company reports modest volume gains but earnings fall short due to rising expenses

By Avery Klein MKC
Stifel Revises McCormick Price Target Downward Amid Elevated Costs
MKC

Stifel has lowered its price target on McCormick & Company to $65 from $71, maintaining a Hold rating after the company's latest quarterly earnings revealed a slight shortfall versus expectations, mainly caused by increased costs. Despite the earnings miss, McCormick has maintained steady volume growth and revenue expansion. However, the company’s fiscal 2026 EPS guidance has been adjusted downward relative to consensus forecasts, reflecting challenges from inflation and higher operational expenditures.

Key Points

  • Stifel lowers McCormick's price target to $65 while keeping a Hold rating due to rising costs impacting earnings.
  • McCormick reports its sixth consecutive quarter of volume growth, highlighting strong market positioning and strategic investments in pricing, innovation, and distribution.
  • Fiscal 2026 EPS guidance is revised downward to reflect higher inflation, ERP spending, tax rates, and incentive compensation rebuilds, falling below consensus estimates.

Investment firm Stifel has lowered its price target for McCormick & Company (NYSE: MKC) to $65 per share from its previous estimate of $71, while upholding a Hold recommendation on the stock. This adjustment follows the spice and flavor producer’s release of its fourth-quarter financial results, which revealed earnings per share of $0.86. This figure came in below Stifel’s forecast by $0.01 and missed broader consensus estimates by $0.02, primarily due to costs exceeding initial projections.

Data from InvestingPro indicates a trend of earnings downgrades among analysts, as three have recently lowered their forecasts for McCormick’s upcoming period. Nonetheless, the company remains profitable, reporting a trailing twelve-month earnings per share of $2.94.

Amid inflationary pressures, McCormick has sustained positive momentum in its top-line performance with a slight increase in sales volume during the quarter. This marks the sixth consecutive quarter where volume growth has been recorded. Stifel observes that this pattern is distinct compared to other companies in the packaged foods sector and attributes it to McCormick's strategic positioning in its market segment as well as investments made in pricing strategies, product innovation, and expanded distribution channels.

Over the past twelve months, McCormick achieved 1.7% revenue growth, translating to total revenues of $6.84 billion. Looking ahead, the company’s guidance for fiscal year 2026 anticipates earnings per share growth on a constant currency basis between 1% and 4%. This forecast is approximately 2-3% below the consensus projections among analysts. Stifel notes that this lower outlook is largely influenced by ongoing inflationary challenges, faster-than-expected enterprise resource planning (ERP) expenses, an increased tax burden, and enhanced incentive compensation rebuilds.

Despite these headwinds, Stifel signals that sustained volume growth and potential margin enhancements — as price adjustments take effect — may offer upward potential for McCormick's share price in the near future.

In related developments, McCormick’s reported earnings per share for the fourth quarter of 2025 stood at $0.86, slightly underperforming the forecasted $0.87. However, the company exceeded revenue expectations by generating $1.85 billion against an anticipated $1.84 billion. This mixed financial performance led to a tepid reaction from the market.

In response to these results and the company’s fiscal 2026 outlook, TD Cowen trimmed its price target for McCormick from $82 down to $75, although it maintained a Buy rating on the stock. Analyst Robert Moskow from TD Cowen highlighted that increased costs were a significant factor influencing the downward adjustment. These factors underscore the ongoing operational and financial challenges McCormick faces amidst the prevailing economic environment.

Risks

  • Persistent inflationary pressures could continue to increase input costs, affecting McCormick's earnings and margins, impacting the packaged foods sector.
  • Accelerated spending on enterprise resource planning systems may strain financial resources, introducing operational risks and potentially delaying profitability improvements.
  • Elevated tax rates and restructuring of incentive compensation plans may weigh on net income, creating uncertainty around achieving projected EPS growth.

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