Stifel has raised its target price on Brinker International (NYSE:EAT) to $210.00 from $200.00 while retaining a Buy rating on the casual-dining operator's stock. The revised target implies roughly a 31% upside from the stock's current trading level of $159.66.
The firm increased its fiscal year 2026 earnings per share projection to $10.50 from $10.15, a figure that sits within Brinker’s own guidance range of $10.45 to $10.85. That guidance incorporates an estimated $0.15 negative impact tied to Winter Storm Fern. For fiscal 2027, Stifel raised its EPS forecast to $12.30 from $12.15, edging slightly above the consensus on the Street of $12.28.
Stifel's adjustments followed Brinker’s fiscal second-quarter 2026 report. Management reported adjusted diluted EPS of $2.87, surpassing the consensus estimate of $2.62 and resulting in an 11.67% surprise to the upside. Revenue for the quarter came in at $1.45 billion versus the expected $1.41 billion.
On same-store sales, Stifel now models a 3.8% increase for Chili’s in the fiscal third quarter of 2026. That pace is below the company’s stated mid-single-digit target, with the firm citing the effects of the winter storm as a moderating factor.
Market responses to Brinker’s quarterly performance were not limited to Stifel. UBS raised its price target to $190 from $175 and kept a Buy rating, pointing to strong same-store sales trends at Chili’s as a key consideration. BMO Capital lifted its target to $175 from $170 while maintaining a Market Perform rating, noting that improved comparable sales at Chili’s and better restaurant margins supported its revision.
Analyst sentiment around Brinker has shown recent upward movement more broadly: nine analysts have revised their earnings expectations higher following the quarterly release. Separately, Brinker is noted to have a Piotroski Score of 9, a metric interpreted as indicating robust financial health.
The cluster of target increases and upward estimate revisions reflects investor and analyst focus on Brinker’s current operating momentum, particularly at Chili’s. Stifel’s updated projections for fiscal 2026 and 2027, coupled with the company’s outperformance on revenue and adjusted EPS in the quarter, underpin its decision to raise the price objective and maintain the Buy stance.
Contextual note: The firm's guidance range and Stifel’s forecasts both incorporate an explicit adjustment for Winter Storm Fern’s estimated $0.15 EPS impact for fiscal 2026.