Stifel has reduced its price target for BellRing Brands (NYSE:BRBR) to $34.00 from $50.00, while leaving its stance at Buy. The move follows BellRing’s first-quarter report and comes amid pronounced weakness in the stock: BRBR shares have plunged 72% over the past year and were trading at $20.88, close to a 52-week low of $20.12.
According to Stifel analyst Matthew Smith, BellRing’s Q1 results came in stronger than expected, a performance the firm attributes largely to favorable shipment timing. Despite that near-term beat, Stifel lowered the high end of BellRing’s fiscal 2026 outlook for both revenue and EBITDA. The firm points to delays in rolling out merchandising initiatives and a rise in promotional activity from competing brands as the primary drivers of the more constrained upper-range guidance.
The stock underperformed even though market expectations were low heading into the quarter, Stifel notes. The brokerage interprets that underperformance as reflecting investor concerns about a softer second-quarter outlook and a fiscal 2026 guidance profile that remains skewed toward the back half of the year.
On valuation, Stifel highlights that BellRing now trades below an 8x EBITDA multiple using FY27 estimates, a level the firm characterizes as presenting attractive upside potential should consumption begin to improve in the second half of the year and margins recover toward the end of the period.
Supplementary market data from InvestingPro shows BellRing trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.87, with revenue growth of 10.59% over the last twelve months. InvestingPro’s Fair Value assessment indicates the stock appears significantly undervalued despite a solid financial health score, and the platform offers an expanded Pro Research Report for deeper analysis.
BellRing’s reported operating performance for the first quarter of 2025 exceeded analyst expectations. The company posted earnings per share of $0.37, ahead of a consensus estimate of $0.3178, and reported revenue of $537 million versus an anticipated $505.55 million. Nevertheless, management trimmed the top end of its fiscal 2026 guidance range.
Separately, William Blair reaffirmed an Outperform rating on BellRing. The firm highlights a mixed set of indicators: solid category growth and strong brand equity for Premier Protein juxtaposed with timing challenges, heightened promotional activity among competitors, and ongoing cost pressures.
These developments paint a picture of a company that delivered a near-term operational beat but faces execution timing issues and competitive dynamics that have prompted investors and analysts to reassess near-term expectations. The combination of a lowered price target from Stifel, the maintained Buy stance, the reiterated Outperform from William Blair, and the company’s revised fiscal 2026 guidance underscores a market that is cautious about short-term performance while weighing potential upside if consumption and margins recover later in the fiscal period.
Summary of developments
- Stifel cut BellRing’s price target to $34 from $50 but maintained a Buy rating.
- BRBR shares have fallen about 72% over the last year and traded around $20.88 near a 52-week low.
- Q1 results beat expectations, aided by shipment timing, but fiscal 2026 guidance had its high end reduced due to merchandising rollout delays and increased competitive promotions.
Context and next steps
Investors will likely watch consumption trends through the second half of the fiscal year and monitor any signs of margin recovery. Analysts point to valuation metrics and company-level execution as key determinants of upside if conditions improve.