On Tuesday, Stephens lowered its 12-month price target on Atlas Energy Solutions Inc (NYSE:AESI) to $16.00 from $20.00 but left its Overweight rating intact. The revised target translates to roughly 39% upside from a reference price of $11.50. The stock has declined by more than 50% over the past year, according to the data cited in the research note.
Stephens' updated estimates show a mixed picture for fourth-quarter 2025. The firm models EBITDA that is 14% above consensus and a cash flow per share figure that is 8% below the Street. Those metrics reflect Stephens' assumptions for sand volumes and pricing in the quarter: sand volumes are modeled as essentially flat relative to the prior quarter while sand prices are assumed to decline by an additional 5% sequentially.
Atlas Energy's trailing 12-month EBITDA is $223.03 million, and investors are looking ahead to the company's next earnings release, which Stephens notes is expected on March 3, 2026.
Looking into 2026, Stephens expects guidance to be mixed. The firm projects annual EBITDA roughly in line with consensus, while forecasting cash flow per share about 7% above Street expectations. For the first quarter of 2026 specifically, Stephens models a 9% increase in sand sales relative to fourth-quarter 2025, followed by sequential declines through the remaining quarters of the year.
Although Stephens does not bake a material recovery into its 2026 estimates, the research team views current sand prices and logistics margins as being at trough levels. The note also points to Atlas Energy's emerging power business as a potential upside catalyst that could influence future valuation.
The reduction in the price target - from $20 to $16 - accompanies the maintained Overweight rating, signaling that Stephens still sees longer-term upside despite near-term pricing pressure in the core sand business.
Recent company results and strategic moves have added complexity to the outlook. Atlas Energy reported a net loss for third-quarter 2025, with loss per share of $0.19, missing the expected $1.07 per share. Revenue, however, came in ahead of expectations at $259.6 million versus the $237.1 million the Street had anticipated.
On the strategic front, the company has entered into a Master Lease Agreement and an Interim Funding Agreement to acquire roughly 240 megawatts of power generation equipment. Financing for that equipment has been arranged through Stonebriar Commercial Finance LLC for up to $385 million, according to the disclosure cited in broker notes.
Broker reactions have varied. Goldman Sachs downgraded Atlas Energy Solutions from Neutral to Sell, citing reduced sand volume expectations for 2025. Piper Sandler trimmed its price target to $10.00 but kept a Neutral rating. Stifel, meanwhile, maintained a Buy rating despite the company suspending dividend payments and delivering weaker-than-expected third-quarter results.
Taken together, the analyst moves and the company's operational developments portray a business navigating near-term commodity price pressure and logistics margin compression while attempting to diversify into power generation - a strategy that some brokers view as a potential longer-term positive even as others express caution.