Summary
Rosenblatt Securities increased its price objective on Fortinet (NASDAQ:FTNT) to $100 from $85 and upgraded the stock rating to Buy from Neutral ahead of the company's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings release. The broker's move follows direct checks with channel partners and aligns with quantitative fair-value measures that point to a similar valuation range.
Rosenblatt's channel checks and valuation
Rosenblatt said it spoke with five value-added resellers as part of its pre-earnings diligence. Those conversations indicated what the firm described as a "meaningful inflection in demand" for Fortinet products. According to Rosenblatt, partners are generally meeting or exceeding their targets, and at least one reseller reported closing multiple seven-figure deals.
The firm also noted that InvestingPro data shows Fortinet carrying strong gross profitability, with gross profit margins of 80.9 percent, a metric Rosenblatt views as supporting Fortinet's capacity to convert demand into healthy margins and cash generation.
Drivers identified by Rosenblatt
- A broad hardware refresh cycle that is displacing older Cisco firewall systems.
- Greater uptake of SASE - Secure Access Service Edge - solutions that are often paired with firewall refresh projects.
- Aggressive sales execution in the fourth quarter that Rosenblatt believes is boosting bookings and billings.
Rosenblatt also pointed to tax policy as a potential near-term tailwind. The firm highlighted a 100 percent first-year depreciation benefit under OBBB as a factor that could accelerate purchases by improving the immediate tax treatment of capital investments.
Timing, price context and upside
Fortinet is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results after the market closes on February 5, 2026. Rosenblatt noted that with the stock trading at $82.08 at the time of its note, its new $100 target implies about 22 percent upside from current levels.
Other analyst views
Analyst coverage ahead of the earnings report is varied. Cantor Fitzgerald continues to carry a Neutral rating with an $87 price target, citing mixed signals in the market despite some improvement in Fortinet-specific checks. TD Cowen has also turned more positive, upgrading Fortinet to Buy with a $100 target and referencing stable channel checks and upside potential to fourth-quarter billings and revenue estimates. Truist Securities remains constructive with a Buy rating but has trimmed its price target to $88, noting that Fortinet's service revenue growth in the third quarter was 12.7 percent year-over-year, a pace the firm described as slightly below expectations.
Product developments
Fortinet recently updated its FortiCNAPP cloud security platform to include integrated risk analysis capabilities. The announced enhancements extend the platform's coverage to include network security posture assessments, data security management, and runtime validation functions. Fortinet framed these improvements as part of its ongoing focus on expanding cloud security offerings.
Investor outlook
With the earnings release approaching, investors are watching for confirmation of the reseller trends Rosenblatt reported and for evidence that the company can translate demand into better-than-expected billings, revenue, and margin performance in fourth-quarter results. Rosenblatt described the setup as "compelling for a 4Q beat-and-raise," while other brokerages supply a range of scenarios from mixed to cautiously optimistic.
Key points
- Rosenblatt raised its Fortinet price target to $100 from $85 and upgraded the rating to Buy after reseller channel checks signaled stronger demand.
- The firm cited a hardware refresh cycle, SASE adoption linked to firewall refreshes, and aggressive fourth-quarter sales execution as primary momentum drivers; tax incentives under OBBB were also noted.
- Other analysts offer a spectrum of views - from Cantor Fitzgerald's Neutral $87 target to TD Cowen's Buy at $100 and Truist's Buy with an $88 target - reflecting differing interpretations of channel signals and revenue trajectories.
Risks and uncertainties
- Channel feedback may not fully translate into company-level results - actual billings and revenue could diverge from reseller reports, impacting reported financials and investor expectations.
- Service revenue growth has shown variability - Truist noted that third-quarter service revenue growth of 12.7 percent year-over-year was slightly below expectations, which could be a drag on overall revenue momentum.
- Analyst estimates and price targets vary, indicating uncertainty in how market demand and execution will affect Fortinet's near-term financials and valuation.
Conclusion
Rosenblatt's upgrade and higher target reflect positive signals from channel partners and a view that Fortinet is well positioned to benefit from network hardware refreshes, SASE adoption, and favorable tax treatment of capital expenditures. With the company set to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 5, 2026, investors and analysts will be closely monitoring whether the reported numbers validate the reseller checks and justify the revised outlooks and targets from multiple brokerages.