Analyst Ratings January 28, 2026

RBC Lifts Northrop Grumman Price Target to $750 After Strong Q4 Showing

Analysts highlight upside from B-21 and F/A-XX while recent quarters reinforce defense and aerospace revenue momentum

By Jordan Park NOC
RBC Lifts Northrop Grumman Price Target to $750 After Strong Q4 Showing
NOC

RBC Capital has increased its price target on Northrop Grumman to $750 from $715 and kept an Outperform rating after the defense contractor posted better-than-expected fourth-quarter 2025 results. The company reported adjusted Q4 EPS of $7.23 and revenue of $11.7 billion, and RBC flagged potential upside to 2026 revenue from programs such as the B-21 and F/A-XX.

Key Points

  • RBC Capital raised its Northrop Grumman price target to $750 from $715 and maintained an Outperform rating after Q4 2025 results.
  • Q4 adjusted EPS was $7.23 versus the $6.99 consensus; revenue was $11.7 billion versus $11.61 billion expected; diluted LTM EPS was $29.08 and market cap is $94.5 billion.
  • RBC sees possible 2026 revenue upside from B-21 program acceleration and the F/A-XX program; several analysts have recently raised FY2026 earnings estimates.

RBC Capital has raised its price objective for Northrop Grumman (NYSE:NOC) to $750 from $715 and reaffirmed an Outperform rating following the company’s robust fourth-quarter 2025 performance. The stock, trading around $665.88, is trading close to its 52-week high of $683.01 and has returned 41.9% over the last 12 months, according to InvestingPro data.

Northrop Grumman reported fourth-quarter results that beat expectations on several fronts. Adjusted earnings per share for the quarter were $7.23, above the consensus estimate of $6.99. Revenue for the quarter came in at $11.7 billion versus the expected $11.61 billion. For the last twelve months, diluted EPS was $29.08, and the company carries a market capitalization of $94.5 billion, underscoring its sizable position in the Aerospace & Defense sector.

Management reiterated guidance calling for mid-single-digit organic growth in 2026. RBC Capital noted that this guidance was modestly below consensus expectations but suggested there are convertible elements to the outlook. The firm pointed to several potential sources of upside to 2026 revenue that are not fully captured in current forecasts, specifically naming potential acceleration of the B-21 program and the F/A-XX program as contributors to revenue expansion.

Analysts are projecting EPS of $28.22 for fiscal year 2026. InvestingPro data indicates that three analysts have recently revised their earnings estimates upward for the upcoming period, reflecting some optimism among sell-side forecasters that may extend beyond management’s stated guidance.

RBC Capital described its view as one of increasing confidence in the potential for upside in 2026 and the possibility of an acceleration of growth in 2027. The firm said this dynamic creates a constructive setup for the company in the near term, particularly if program timing and contract execution provide more revenue than currently modeled.


Other broker activity following the fourth-quarter release included BofA Securities lifting its price target to $750 while maintaining a Buy rating. Vertical Research Partners also adjusted its target, raising it from $625 to $688 and keeping a Hold rating in place. Vertical Research Partners characterized the results as a notable moment for the U.S. defense industry and pointed to elevated investments in capital expenditures and research and development in the sector.

The company’s involvement in civil space was also highlighted. Northrop Grumman’s solid rocket boosters are slated to power NASA’s Artemis II mission, the first crewed mission beyond the Moon since the Apollo program, with a launch planned as early as February 6, 2026. That program reinforces the firm’s footprint across both defense and aerospace markets.

Collectively, the updated price targets and reiterated guidance reflect a market reassessment of Northrop Grumman’s near-term revenue drivers and longer-term program optionality. Market participants will likely watch program schedules and contract progress closely for signals that the upside RBC and others reference is being realized.

Risks

  • Management’s mid-single-digit organic growth guidance for 2026 was slightly below consensus, indicating uncertainty in near-term organic growth - this affects expectations in the defense sector.
  • Potential upside cited by RBC depends on program timing and execution such as B-21 acceleration and F/A-XX relevance, creating program timing risk for revenue forecasts in aerospace and defense.
  • Analyst estimates and price-target adjustments are reliant on continued contract wins and investment cycles; changes in capital expenditure or R&D priorities could alter outcomes for the Aerospace & Defense industry.

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