Analyst Ratings January 23, 2026

RBC Capital Revises CSX Stock Price Target Amid Modest Freight Demand

Rail operator's earnings reflect freight industry softness; analysts maintain optimistic outlook despite mixed signals

By Marcus Reed CSX
RBC Capital Revises CSX Stock Price Target Amid Modest Freight Demand
CSX

RBC Capital has decreased its price target for CSX Corporation to $39 from $40, noting the company’s recent financial results are broadly in line with expectations despite a sluggish freight market. The railroad reported modest revenue declines and adjusted guidance reflecting low single-digit growth and margin improvements. Analysts remain positive on CSX’s long-term prospects despite current challenges in freight demand and mixed quarterly earnings.

Key Points

  • RBC Capital reduced CSX's price target to $39 from $40 while maintaining an Outperform rating amid a weak freight market.
  • CSX’s guidance shows expected low single-digit revenue growth and margin expansion, projecting earnings per share slightly below consensus estimates.
  • Analysts remain cautiously optimistic about CSX’s future prospects, noting progress in network fluidity and the completion of key construction projects despite recent revenue declines.

RBC Capital has revised its price target on CSX Corporation's stock, lowering it from $40.00 to $39.00 while continuing to rate the shares as Outperform. CSX, traded on NASDAQ under the symbol CSX, is presently valued at $35.78 per share, with a market capitalization exceeding $66 billion and a price-to-earnings ratio of approximately 23.38, based on InvestingPro data.

This adjustment reflects the outcomes of CSX's most recent quarterly earnings report. RBC analyst Walter Spracklin described the earnings as largely consistent with expectations once slight adjustments were made for discrete costs of $0.02 per share and a modest tax-related benefit of $0.01.

The company’s updated forecast indicates anticipated revenue growth in the low single digits alongside a 200 to 300 basis point improvement in operating margins. These projections suggest earnings per share of $1.86 for the upcoming period, slightly below the previous consensus estimate of $1.88. This outlook comes after CSX recorded revenues of $14.12 billion over the last twelve months, representing a decline of 3.8% year-over-year.

Spracklin characterized the results as a reflection of the current subdued conditions in the freight sector, citing a "sluggish freight environment." However, he noted a positive aspect in the improved network fluidity and progress on concluding major construction initiatives, which marks progress for the company’s operational capabilities.

Despite trimming the price target, RBC Capital views the revised guidance as a baseline level for performance and is hopeful that 2026 may yield results that surpass current expectations. The firm has maintained its Outperform rating on CSX shares. Analysis from InvestingPro shows analyst price targets for CSX vary widely, ranging from $30 to $45. The company has demonstrated consistency in shareholder returns, maintaining its dividend payout for 45 consecutive years and increasing dividends for 21 straight years.

Additional recent data on CSX's financials reveal a mixed fourth-quarter 2025 performance. The company posted earnings per share of $0.42, slightly exceeding the forecast of $0.41 by 2.44%, yet revenue missed projections, totaling $3.51 billion rather than the expected $3.55 billion, marking a 1.13% shortfall. Following this earnings announcement, Evercore ISI lowered its price target slightly to $40.00 from $41.00, upholding an Outperform recommendation amid a mixed outlook. Meanwhile, Raymond James raised its target to $41.00, citing confidence in CSX's ongoing ONECSX initiatives aimed at enhancing operational and cultural aspects of the company. These differing perspectives illustrate varied analyst sentiment regarding CSX’s future performance trajectory.

Investors can access detailed analysis on CSX alongside more than 1,400 other stocks through InvestingPro’s comprehensive research reports.

Risks

  • Sluggish demand in the freight sector may continue to pressure CSX’s revenue and earnings growth.
  • Potential volatility in quarterly revenue results, as illustrated by mixed recent earnings and revenue surprises, introduces uncertainty.
  • Variability in analyst price targets and outlooks reflects ongoing uncertainty about CSX's operational and financial performance in a challenging market environment.

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