Analyst action and rationale
Raymond James has reduced its 12-month price target on Northern Oil and Gas (NYSE: NOG) to $32.00 from $33.00, while continuing to carry a Strong Buy recommendation on the shares. The firm attributed the modest cut to a weaker commodity strip since its prior publication, but said the change does not alter its constructive view on Northern’s long-term prospects.
Current market view and valuation signals
Northern shares were noted to be trading at $23.45 at the time of the firm’s assessment. Raymond James highlighted valuation metrics for fiscal year 2026 showing an approximate 3.3x EV/EBITDA multiple and a free cash flow to enterprise value yield of about 7%. The stock also yields an indicated 7.7% dividend and trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.9. InvestingPro Fair Value estimates were cited as suggesting the shares look undervalued, and analyst targets on the stock span a range from $24 to $40.
Production and capital assumptions
On operating assumptions, Raymond James trimmed its fourth-quarter 2025 oil production estimate to the midpoint of company guidance at roughly 75 Mbbl/d, down from a prior higher-end estimate of 78 Mbbl/d. The firm noted that a December pullback in oil prices likely prompted some deferrals in activity, particularly among private operators, which influenced the downward revision.
For fiscal year 2026, Raymond James projects oil production of about 77.5 Mbbl/d, which it says is roughly 2% above the Street consensus of 76 Mbbl/d. Its FY26 capital expenditure forecast remains at $1.07 billion, broadly in line with consensus expectations.
Acquisition update and hedging
Raymond James reiterated that Northern’s acquisition of Utica assets is still expected to close in late first quarter 2026. The company previously announced a definitive agreement to acquire a 49% interest in Ohio Utica Shale assets for $588 million in cash, part of a larger $1.2 billion transaction that includes upstream assets and midstream infrastructure. Following the joint acquisition, Northern has materially expanded its natural gas hedging positions.
Recent financial performance
Northern reported third-quarter 2025 results that exceeded analyst expectations. The company posted earnings per share of $1.03 versus an expected $0.92, and reported revenue of $556.64 million compared with forecasts near $521.83 million.
Other analyst moves
Separately, Mizuho lowered its price target for Northern to $29.00 from $30.00 and maintained a Neutral rating, citing wider natural gas differentials as a factor.
Market context and corporate profile
Raymond James flagged Northern’s market capitalization at $2.28 billion in its research notes and noted that the company has raised its dividend for five consecutive years, an insight included in InvestingPro’s Pro Research Report on the name. The combination of yield, recent outperformance versus estimates, and the planned Utica transaction are central to current analyst coverage and positioning.
Conclusion
The analyst adjustment reduces the near-term price target marginally but leaves the Strong Buy stance intact, reflecting a view that the recent commodity price softness and related operational deferrals have tempered near-term growth assumptions without undermining longer-term fundamentals as assessed by Raymond James. Other broker action, including Mizuho’s small target reduction and Neutral stance amid gas differentials, underscores continued attention to commodity-driven risks and the implications of the Utica deal and expanded hedging for Northern’s cash flow profile.