Analyst Ratings January 27, 2026

Raymond James Sticks With Strong Buy on Union Pacific, Sets $275 Target

Firm cites service-focused operational changes and potential Norfolk Southern deal as catalysts amid a modest Q4 2025 earnings miss

By Avery Klein UNP NSC
Raymond James Sticks With Strong Buy on Union Pacific, Sets $275 Target
UNP NSC

Raymond James has reaffirmed a Strong Buy rating on Union Pacific (UNP) with a $275 price target, pointing to network improvements, tighter transportation planning and CEO operational emphasis as drivers of improved profitability and reliability. The firm also described the company’s proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern (NSC) as potentially transformational for U.S. freight, while Union Pacific reported a slight miss on Q4 2025 EPS and revenue versus analyst estimates.

Key Points

  • Raymond James reaffirmed a Strong Buy on Union Pacific with a $275 price target, implying roughly 18% upside from the $232.55 share price.
  • The firm expects network changes, tighter transportation planning and a CEO operational emphasis to improve asset utilization, service reliability and profitability; Union Pacific’s gross profit margin is 56.14%.
  • Raymond James described the proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern (NSC) as potentially transformational, citing prospects for higher volumes, better service, improved pricing and earnings growth beyond current expectations.

Raymond James has maintained a Strong Buy rating on Union Pacific (NYSE: UNP) and set a price objective of $275.00, a level the firm says reflects confidence in the railroad’s service-first operational pivot and growth prospects. At the current trading price of $232.55, that target implies roughly an 18% upside.

The brokerage emphasized that planned adjustments to Union Pacific’s network should yield a more dependable and profitable system through better asset utilization and a stricter transportation plan. Raymond James pointed to the company’s gross profit margin of 56.14% as evidence of strong underlying profitability, based on InvestingPro data.

According to the firm, the CEO’s concentrated focus on operations bolsters the view that substantive improvements could materialize quickly. Raymond James also called attention to Union Pacific’s proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern (NSC), describing the transaction as potentially "transformational" for the U.S. freight transportation industry.

The acquisition, if completed, is expected by Raymond James to combine higher volumes, enhanced service levels, improved pricing power and earnings growth that could exceed current market expectations. The firm’s assessment sits alongside a broader analyst consensus that remains bullish, with a consensus score of 1.96, which is equivalent to a Buy rating.


In corporate results, Union Pacific Corporation reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that modestly missed analyst forecasts for both earnings per share and revenue. The company delivered an EPS of $2.86, slightly below the $2.87 expected by analysts. Reported revenue for the quarter was $6.1 billion, versus a forecast of $6.12 billion.

Despite those small misses, Union Pacific’s shares demonstrated resilience in premarket trading. The quarter and the company’s results remain under close observation from investors and analysts, though recent discussions among analysts have not produced notable changes in their overall outlooks or generated any near-term upgrades or downgrades.


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Overall, Raymond James’ reiterated Strong Buy rating and $275 target rest on expectations that network optimization, disciplined transportation planning and potential scale benefits from a Norfolk Southern acquisition could shift Union Pacific’s trajectory toward stronger service, pricing and earnings growth. At the same time, recent quarterly results underline that short-term execution and near-term revenue and EPS outcomes remain relevant to investor sentiment.

Risks

  • Execution risk on network changes and transportation planning could delay improvements in service and profitability, which would affect the rail and broader freight sectors.
  • The proposed acquisition of Norfolk Southern carries uncertainty; integration or regulatory challenges could alter expected volume, pricing and earnings benefits for the freight transportation industry.
  • Recent fourth-quarter 2025 results showed slight misses on EPS ($2.86 vs $2.87) and revenue ($6.1 billion vs $6.12 billion), indicating that near-term financial performance can deviate from analyst forecasts and influence market sentiment.

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