Citizens has shifted its rating on Quince Therapeutics Inc. (QNCX) in the wake of a failed pivotal study for the company’s lead program. The research house moved the equity from Market Outperform to Market Perform after the Phase 3 NEAT trial for Ataxia-Telangiectasia (A-T) did not meet primary or key secondary endpoints, and Quince’s management announced a halt to clinical development of the eDSP therapy.
The market reaction was severe: data show the stock dropped roughly 91.23% over the prior week and was trading near $0.27 per share. The decline reflects investor reassessment of the company’s commercial and clinical prospects after the pivotal study outcome.
Citizens highlighted the firm’s cash position as a central near-term consideration. As of the third quarter of 2025, Quince held about $26 million in cash, a level the firm said would provide runway into the second quarter of 2026. Citizens also noted that Quince’s most recent twelve-month EBITDA was -$41.68 million, underscoring rapid cash consumption.
Based on its model, Citizens estimated Quince finished 2025 with roughly $16 million in cash, which equates to about $0.30 per share. The research house expects the stock to trade at or below those cash-per-share figures as management evaluates strategic options following the NEAT outcome.
NEAT trial results
Quince disclosed that the international NEAT study enrolled 105 participants and failed to reach statistical significance on its primary measure of neurological improvement. The treatment arm recorded a mean change of 0.94 versus 2.24 in the placebo arm, with a reported p-value of 0.0851. Following those findings, the company said it would cease further clinical development of the eDSP treatment.
In subsequent communications, Citizens provided contrasting signals about its stance. In one note it downgraded the stock to Market Perform; in another it reiterated a Market Outperform rating and kept a price target of $8.00, citing discussions with an ataxia expert who was reportedly positive about the therapy’s safety and prior-trial efficacy. The research house also said it remained constructive ahead of additional clinical readouts expected in the mid-first quarter of 2026.
The juxtaposition of a halted program, sharply lower market capitalization, and limited cash resources leaves investors focused on near-term financing and strategic choices from management. With reported cash levels and ongoing negative EBITDA, the company faces a compressed timeline to secure funding or other options.
Implications
- Biotech and small-cap equity markets are directly affected by the clinical failure and ensuing sell-off.
- Credit and financing markets for early-stage developers may become more cautious when cash runways narrow after clinical setbacks.
- Investors evaluating Quince must weigh reported cash-per-share metrics against prospective dilution or restructuring outcomes.