Piper Sandler has trimmed its price objective for Tractor Supply Company (NASDAQ:TSCO) to $59.00 from $67.00, while leaving its Overweight rating intact. The rural lifestyle retailer has a market capitalization of $26.93 billion and is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.77.
The firm’s move follows what it described as a "disappointing Q4," in which Tractor Supply missed consensus expectations on comparable-store sales, profit margins, and earnings per share. Management’s 2026 guidance was also released below Street expectations and under the company’s stated long-term comparable sales growth target of 3-5%. Piper Sandler and the company pointed to softer discretionary spending and ongoing pressure on customer wallets as drivers of the weaker outlook.
Despite the downgrade in price target, Piper Sandler signaled confidence that Tractor Supply can ultimately return to comparable sales growth above 3%. The research firm noted that the retailer does not appear to be losing market share; instead the weakness reflects broader sluggishness across the Farm & Ranch category. In addition, Piper Sandler’s checks indicated that Tractor Supply started the current quarter on a stronger footing, helped in part by recent winter storms that boosted demand.
Tractor Supply’s reported fourth-quarter 2025 results were below Wall Street forecasts. The company posted diluted earnings per share of $0.43 versus an expected $0.47, and revenue of $3.9 billion compared with the $4.02 billion analysts had anticipated. Those results prompted several analysts to revise their near-term targets for the stock.
- Evercore ISI reduced its target to $60.00 from $65.00, citing weaker discretionary demand and heavier holiday promotions.
- Telsey Advisory Group lowered its target to $63.00 from $70.00, while noting that Tractor Supply is continuing to gain market share in its core segments.
- Wolfe Research cut its target to $57.00 from $60.00 and observed that quarter-to-date trends have improved relative to earlier expectations.
- Mizuho trimmed its target to $58.00 from $65.00, highlighting a change in management’s commentary on the rural economy and an uptick in promotional activity.
Each of those firms maintained an Outperform rating on the stock despite lowering price targets. The cluster of revisions underscores how the retailer’s recent top-line and margin performance, paired with softer guidance, has forced analysts to reassess near-term earnings and valuation assumptions while continuing to express a constructive view on the longer-term positioning of the business.
Summary
Piper Sandler cut its Tractor Supply price target to $59 from $67 and left an Overweight rating after Q4 results missed on comparable sales, margins, and EPS. Tractor Supply’s 2026 guidance fell short of Street expectations and its own 3-5% long-term comparable sales target amid softer discretionary spending. Other analysts trimmed price targets to a range of $57 to $63 but left Outperform ratings in place.
Key points
- Piper Sandler reduced its price target to $59.00 from $67.00 and maintained an Overweight rating.
- Fourth-quarter 2025 results: EPS $0.43 (vs $0.47 expected); revenue $3.9 billion (vs $4.02 billion expected).
- Several analysts cut price targets - Evercore ISI to $60, Telsey to $63, Wolfe to $57, Mizuho to $58 - while keeping Outperform ratings.
Risks and uncertainties
- Continued softness in discretionary spending could pressure same-store sales and revenue, affecting retail and consumer discretionary sectors.
- Elevated promotional activity may weigh on margins and unit economics, impacting retail profitability metrics.
- Broader industry weakness in the Farm & Ranch category could constrain growth even if market share is maintained, posing uncertainty for related agricultural retail exposure.