Oppenheimer has trimmed its 12-month price target on Docebo Inc. (NASDAQ: DCBO) to $25.00 from $35.00, though the firm continues to rate the shares Outperform. The revised target remains above Docebo’s most recent trade at $19.57, even as the stock sits near its 52-week low of $18.11 after sliding more than 57% over the past year.
The analyst’s decision to lower the target price coincides with Docebo’s announcement that its Board approved a substantial issuer bid - a buyback to repurchase and cancel up to $60 million of common shares at $20.40 per share. The tender offer represents roughly 10% of the company’s outstanding shares and will be funded with $30 million in cash and a $30 million draw on a credit facility.
InvestingPro data cited by the analyst indicates Docebo currently carries more cash than debt on its balance sheet, with total debt of approximately $2.9 million in the most recent quarter. That cash position, relative to the company’s modest debt load, was noted as supportive of the decision to pursue an aggressive buyback program.
Company management and Intercap, Docebo’s largest shareholder, are not expected to participate in the repurchase offer. The tender is not conditional on a minimum level of shares being tendered. Should the value of tendered shares exceed $60 million, purchases will be made on a pro rata basis, with small holdings exempted from pro-ration.
Oppenheimer attributed the reduction in the price target to lower software valuation multiples prevailing in the current market. At the same time, InvestingPro analysis is reported to show Docebo as appearing undervalued, with a Fair Value assessment above the company’s current trading price - an observation the analyst linked to management’s decision to pursue the buyback. InvestingPro subscribers are noted as having access to 15 additional ProTips and detailed financial metrics to further evaluate Docebo’s valuation potential.
Alongside the SIB announcement, Docebo published its initial fiscal 2026 outlook. The company projects revenue growth of 10-11%, which is above consensus expectations of 9%. Docebo also forecasts an adjusted EBITDA margin of 20%, in line with Street estimates. These projections build on recent operating performance, including 13.16% revenue growth over the last twelve months and a gross profit margin of 80.63%.
For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Docebo provided revenue guidance of $62.7 million to $63.7 million, which would exceed analyst estimates of $62.1 million and the company’s prior internal guidance of $62.0 million to $62.2 million. The company expects fourth quarter ARR to be $283.1 million and adjusted EBITDA margin to be 20-21%, slightly below consensus figures of $283.3 million for ARR and 21% for adjusted EBITDA margin.
At the time of the report, Docebo had a market capitalization of $562.34 million and a price-to-earnings ratio of 26.61. Despite recent share-price weakness, the consensus among analysts remained a Strong Buy.
In separate strategic moves, Docebo said it acquired 365Talents, a French company described as an AI-powered skills intelligence provider, for approximately $54.6 million in cash. The acquisition includes potential additional earn-out payments tied to financial milestones. Docebo stated the deal is intended to incorporate skills intelligence directly into its learning workflows.
Cantor Fitzgerald also updated its view on Docebo, raising its price target to $28 from $25 and maintaining an Overweight rating. Cantor highlighted the strategic upside of the 365Talents acquisition, saying the deal addresses gaps in Docebo’s enterprise offering and could produce synergies through cross-selling to existing customers and improving new-customer acquisition.
Context and takeaways
- Oppenheimer’s lower target reflects valuation compression in the software sector, while the Outperform rating signals continued conviction in Docebo’s medium-term prospects.
- The $60 million SIB at $20.40 per share is material relative to Docebo’s market cap and is financed through a mix of cash and credit, leveraging the company’s low reported debt.
- Guidance for fiscal 2026 implies revenue growth above consensus and an adjusted EBITDA margin in line with expectations, building on recent double-digit revenue growth and a high gross margin.
Data points quoted in this report
- Oppenheimer price target: lowered to $25.00 from $35.00; rating Outperform.
- Latest trade and valuation: trading near $19.57; 52-week low $18.11; down over 57% year-over-year.
- Substantial issuer bid: up to $60 million at $20.40 per share - ~10% of outstanding shares; financed with $30 million cash + $30 million credit facility drawdown.
- Balance sheet: total debt approximately $2.9 million as of the most recent quarter.
- Fiscal 2026 outlook: revenue growth 10-11% vs. consensus 9%; adjusted EBITDA margin 20% (in line with Street).
- Recent operational metrics: last 12 months revenue growth 13.16%; gross profit margin 80.63%.
- Q4 2025 guidance: revenue $62.7M - $63.7M vs. analyst estimate $62.1M and prior guidance $62.0M - $62.2M; Q4 ARR $283.1M vs. consensus $283.3M; Q4 adjusted EBITDA margin 20-21% vs. consensus 21%.
- Market capitalization and valuation multiple: Market cap $562.34M; P/E 26.61.
- Acquisition: 365Talents for approximately $54.6M in cash, with potential additional earn-outs.
- Cantor Fitzgerald: price target raised to $28 from $25; rating Overweight.