Analyst Ratings January 26, 2026

Morgan Stanley Sticks With Overweight on Apple, Sets $315 Target Ahead of Earnings

Analyst sees iPhone 17 demand underappreciated but flags margin and memory-cost headwinds ahead of quarterly report

By Nina Shah AAPL
Morgan Stanley Sticks With Overweight on Apple, Sets $315 Target Ahead of Earnings
AAPL

Morgan Stanley has reaffirmed its Overweight rating on Apple with a $315 price target as the company approaches its earnings release. The firm expects iPhone revenue to outpace consensus by 4-8% for the December and March quarters, but highlights offsetting pressures - including higher operating expense consensus, tighter gross margin assumptions, and rising memory costs - that could limit upside to consensus earnings revisions and press shares near term.

Key Points

  • Morgan Stanley reaffirms Overweight rating on Apple with a $315 price target ahead of the company’s earnings release; stock trades at $248.04 and appears slightly overvalued per InvestingPro Fair Value while showing a Piotroski Score of 9.
  • The firm forecasts iPhone revenue 4-8% above consensus for the December and March quarters but expects March quarter gross margins to be about 30 basis points below Street estimates and flags that consensus operating expenses are roughly 7% too low.
  • Memory cost headwinds and higher operating expenses could pressure June-quarter EPS estimates; other major banks offer mixed views with Goldman Sachs at Buy/$320 and UBS at Neutral/$280, reflecting divergent expectations across the tech and consumer electronics sectors.

Morgan Stanley has reiterated its Overweight recommendation on Apple Inc. and left its price target at $315.00 as investors prepare for the company’s quarterly report on Thursday. The stock is trading at $248.04 and, according to InvestingPro Fair Value metrics cited by analysts, appears modestly overvalued even as Apple posts a perfect Piotroski Score of 9 that points to robust financial health.

The firm’s near-term view is cautious. Morgan Stanley expects the stock to trade "sideways to modestly lower" in the immediate aftermath of the earnings release, despite its assessment that Wall Street underestimates the strength of the iPhone 17.

Fundamental projections underlying the call are mixed. Morgan Stanley models iPhone revenue at 4-8% above consensus for both the December and March quarters, yet identifies other inputs that could mute upward revisions to earnings estimates. The bank highlights that consensus operating-expense projections for the March quarter are roughly 7% too low relative to its own forecast, and it expects gross margins to come in approximately 30 basis points below Street expectations for the same period.

Beyond the March quarter, Morgan Stanley also flags downside risk to June-quarter EPS forecasts. The firm points to intensifying memory cost headwinds that are not fully reflected in consensus estimates, creating potential pressure on future margins. The bank additionally reminds investors of a historical pattern: Apple has tended to underperform the S&P by a median of 400 basis points in the first calendar quarter more than in any other quarter.

Analyst targets ahead of the report show a broad range, spanning from $205 to $350, underscoring divergent views among market participants. For investors seeking deeper analysis, InvestingPro subscribers have access to comprehensive research reports that the firm cites as context for differing forecasts and sensitivities around Apple’s results.

Other major broker commentary ahead of earnings has varied. Goldman Sachs maintained a Buy rating and a $320.00 target, interpreting a recent 5% pullback in the stock as an attractive entry point and projecting iPhone revenue growth of 9% in both fiscal 2026 and 2027. Goldman also models first-quarter fiscal 2026 earnings per share at $2.66, consistent with FactSet consensus.

UBS kept a Neutral stance with a $280.00 target, while noting strong demand signals for the iPhone 17 and estimating December 2025 sell-in volumes around 84.5-85.0 million units. KeyBanc reiterated a Sector Weight rating, describing the near-term risk/reward profile as neutral.

Product and market initiatives remain part of the narrative. Reports indicate Apple is developing an AI-enabled wearable pin featuring multiple cameras, a speaker, microphones, and wireless charging functionality. Separately, the company is in discussions with Mastercard and Visa about launching a digital payments service in India, contingent on approvals and with a phased rollout envisioned for 2026.

The confluence of upgraded device demand expectations, margin sensitivity, and cost pressures frames Morgan Stanley’s stance: upside from stronger iPhone sales is plausible, but cost and margin dynamics - especially memory costs and higher-than-expected operating expenses - could constrain near-term earnings revisions and share performance.

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Risks

  • Margin compression - Morgan Stanley projects March quarter gross margins 30 basis points below consensus, which could negatively affect profitability in the technology and consumer electronics sectors.
  • Rising component costs - Intensifying memory cost headwinds not fully captured in consensus estimates may lead to downside risk for June-quarter EPS, impacting technology hardware manufacturers and suppliers.
  • Higher operating expenses - Consensus March-quarter operating expenses are cited as roughly 7% too low, which could limit upward revisions to earnings and influence investor expectations across equity markets.

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