Analyst Ratings January 26, 2026

Morgan Stanley Raises Corpay to Overweight, Cites Mid-Teens EPS Growth Path

Analyst lift follows strong Q3 2025 results and signs of freight demand recovery; new $379 price target implies mid-single-digit valuation multiple versus 2027 estimates

By Jordan Park CPAY
Morgan Stanley Raises Corpay to Overweight, Cites Mid-Teens EPS Growth Path
CPAY

Morgan Stanley moved Corpay Inc. (NYSE: CPAY) from Equalweight to Overweight and increased its price objective to $379 from $322, citing an expected trajectory of sustained mid-teens earnings per share growth and early indicators of a recovery in freight and trucking demand. The bank also downplayed the significance of stablecoin-related concerns for Corpay's model. The upgrade accompanies recent strong third-quarter 2025 results and a separate price-target reduction from UBS, while Corpay added David Bunch to its board.

Key Points

  • Morgan Stanley upgraded Corpay from Equalweight to Overweight and raised its price target to $379 from $322, citing a path to sustained mid-teens EPS growth.
  • Corpay reported strong third-quarter 2025 results with adjusted EPS of $5.70 versus a $5.63 consensus and revenue of $1.172 billion versus a $1.16 billion consensus.
  • UBS lowered its price target to $315 from $340 but maintained a Neutral rating, referencing fiscal 2026 organic revenue growth expectations of roughly 9-11%.

Morgan Stanley has upgraded Corpay Inc. (NYSE: CPAY) to Overweight from Equalweight and lifted its price target to $379.00 from $322.00. The firm frames the change around an outlook that the payments company can sustain mid-teens growth in earnings per share over the coming years.

At the time of the analyst action, Corpay carries a market capitalization of $22.42 billion and is trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.73. Morgan Stanley also assessed concerns tied to stablecoins and concluded those issues appear overstated relative to Corpay's business model.

The investment bank identified nascent signs of recovery in freight and trucking demand as a positive catalyst for Corpay. In support of its valuation argument, Morgan Stanley's new $379.00 target equates to roughly 13 times the company's projected 2027 price-to-earnings ratio and about 17 times its projected 2027 free cash flow figure when excluding stock-based compensation.

Corpay's recent operating results provide context for the rating action. The company reported third-quarter 2025 adjusted earnings per share of $5.70, modestly ahead of the consensus estimate of $5.63. Revenue for the quarter reached $1.172 billion, above the $1.16 billion consensus. These data points were cited alongside the analyst reassessment.

Not all research houses reacted the same way. UBS revised its price target for Corpay to $315 from $340 while keeping a Neutral rating. UBS said the adjustment reflects the companys fiscal 2026 organic revenue growth outlook of approximately 9-11 percent, which UBS interprets as consistent with stable-to-improving trends.

Governance developments accompanied the corporate and analyst activity: Corpay announced the appointment of David Bunch to its board of directors. Bunch, who holds a significant executive position at Shell PLC, brings leadership experience across North America, Asia, and Europe.

Taken together, the Morgan Stanley upgrade, the UBS price-target revision, Corpay's Q3 performance, and the board addition sketch a picture of a company with recent top-line and earnings momentum, a contested research landscape, and management steps to bolster corporate oversight. Market participants and sector observers will likely watch the freight and trucking recovery, the company's organic revenue trends into fiscal 2026, and how stablecoin-related considerations evolve relative to Corpay's payments business.

Risks

  • Ongoing uncertainty around Corpay's exposure to stablecoins - Morgan Stanley judges concerns to be overblown, but the topic remains a market-facing risk for the payments sector.
  • Economic dependence on freight and trucking demand - the upgrade references early signs of recovery, but a weaker-than-expected rebound in this segment could weigh on transaction volumes.
  • Divergent analyst views - differing price targets and ratings, such as UBS's lower target with a Neutral stance, highlight varying assessments of growth and valuation that could influence stock performance.

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