Mizuho has increased its price target for Willis Towers Watson (NASDAQ: WTW) to $392.00 from $388.00 and left its rating at Outperform. The new target sits well above the stock's most recent trade at $335.10 and is close to the analyst high target of $400.
The uplift in the target implies an approximate 24% potential return from the current share price, according to Mizuho’s research note released Wednesday. Data cited in the note indicates the shares are trading slightly below their Fair Value, while the firm assigns the company an overall financial health score of 2.72, characterized as "GOOD."
Mizuho revised up its earnings-per-share forecasts for fiscal 2026 and 2027, adding $0.40 and $0.25 to arrive at estimates of $19.65 and $22.65 per share, respectively. Those projections sit roughly 2% above consensus expectations for both years, reflecting the firm’s bullish near-term outlook on WTW’s earnings trajectory. Over the last twelve months the company reported diluted EPS of $16.26, and analysts are forecasting EPS of $17.54 for fiscal 2026.
The updated forecast embeds a number of specific adjustments. Mizuho raised its consolidated organic growth assumption by 50 basis points to 5%, reflected more favorable foreign exchange impacts, and lowered the estimated tax rate by 50 basis points to align with 2025 results. The research note additionally highlights active balance-sheet management, noting that management has been buying back shares and that the company has sustained dividend payments for 23 consecutive years.
On the profitability front, Mizuho nudged its adjusted operating profit margin estimate up by 30 basis points to 25.5%, citing a higher 2025 base. The firm continues to expect 30 basis points of incremental margin expansion driven by efficiency gains, scale and foreign exchange tailwinds, partially offset by drag from mergers and acquisitions activity. Independent metrics referenced in the analysis show Willis Towers Watson with a gross profit margin of 42.06% and a return on equity of 20% for the last twelve months.
Recent company results provided supporting evidence for the more optimistic view. For the fourth quarter of 2025 Willis Towers Watson reported earnings per share of $8.12, ahead of the $7.96 consensus, and revenue of $2.94 billion, beating the expected $2.85 billion. Those quarterly beats prompted other brokerages to raise their targets: Wells Fargo lifted its price target to $379 while maintaining an Overweight rating, and Evercore ISI increased its target to $390, citing the company’s strong performance and a favorable outlook for its Risk & Broking segment.
Evercore ISI characterized the quarter as the strongest performance in the insurance broker sector, emphasizing the company’s capacity to outpace estimates despite headwinds in specialty lines. Collectively, these analyst responses point to broadly positive sentiment among sell-side firms following the quarterly results and the updated modeling from Mizuho.
What this means
- Analyst confidence has increased as a result of both updated forecasts and recent quarterly outperformance, supporting a higher price target and upgraded estimates.
- Key model changes driving the outlook include higher organic growth assumptions, favorable foreign exchange effects, a lower tax-rate assumption, and modest margin expansion expectations.
- The company’s buybacks and long-running dividend payments are cited as indicators of disciplined capital allocation that reinforce the positive stance among analysts.
Context and caveats
- The revised estimates are modestly above consensus, roughly 2% for 2026 and 2027, indicating that the improved outlook is incremental rather than dramatic.
- Mizuho’s margin expansion expectations factor in offsetting forces: operational efficiencies and FX tailwinds balanced against M&A-related drag.